FII Activity: Bullish Adjustments in Nifty Index Futures Amid Expiry Adjustments
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bullish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively buying 1,039 contracts worth ₹143 crore. However, the net open interest decreased by 28,703 contracts due to monthly expiry-related adjustments, making it less reflective of fresh directional bias.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs covered 9,846 long contracts, suggesting some profit booking or rollover adjustments.
- FIIs covered 35,890 short contracts, indicating a significant reduction in bearish bets, which could be an early sign of a shift in sentiment.
Client Behavior
- Clients covered 41,855 long contracts, likely adjusting positions post-expiry.
- Clients covered 29,370 short contracts, reducing their bearish exposure.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 16% long and 84% short positions → Still maintaining a bearish stance, but not aggressively adding new shorts.
- Clients: Holding 73% long and 27% short positions → More optimistic market outlook, expecting further upside.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
✔ FIIs covering a large number of short contracts signals reduced bearish conviction.
✔ Clients remain bullish, indicating confidence in a potential rebound.
✔ With expiry adjustments in play, the true directional bias will be clearer in the next few sessions.
✔ If Nifty holds key support levels, short-covering by FIIs could drive a strong rally.
Final Thoughts: While FIIs remain net short, their large short covering suggests a cautious shift in sentiment. Key levels in the coming sessions will confirm if this is a temporary adjustment or the start of a trend change!
Nifty has formed an NR21 pattern on the daily chart and an NR7 pattern on the weekly chart, indicating extreme price contraction. Such setups typically precede a strong directional move, making the coming sessions crucial for traders.
Key Factors Supporting a Trending Move
✔ Sun Ingress Range in Play – Nifty is trading within a key astro influence zone, increasing volatility potential.
✔ Mercury Square Jupiter Aspect Today – A significant planetary aspect that often triggers sharp price moves, as discussed in the video below.
✔ Gann Price & Time Confluence – When price and time align, a major trend shift or breakout is highly probable.
What to Expect?
NR21 & NR7 indicate a volatility squeeze, meaning the longer the consolidation, the bigger the breakout/breakdown.
Be prepared for a trending move—volatility expansion is imminent.
Nifty continues to hold its Gann angle support zone on the daily chart, forming an NR21 pattern, marking the smallest range in the last 21 trading sessions—a classic sign of price compression before a big breakout or breakdown.
Adding to the significance:
✔ Weekly Chart: Another red candle with an NR21 pattern, reinforcing a tight range and upcoming volatility expansion.
✔ Monthly Chart: 5 consecutive months of decline, showing sustained weakness last happened in 1996
✔ New Moon Today: Often marks a turning point in market sentiment.
✔ Mercury & Venus Sign Change Over the Weekend: Astro cycles shifting could trigger a strong directional move next week.
✔ With monthly closing today, expect strong positioning battles between bulls & bears.
✔ Watch for a decisive breakout from the 22,400–22,600 range to confirm the next major move.
✔ With Venus & Mercury changing signs over the weekend, expect heightened volatility next week.
✔ NR21 pattern suggests a strong trending move is imminent—stay prepared!
Final Thoughts: With price contraction, key astro shifts, and Gann support in play, a big move is brewing. Watch for a breakout or breakdown confirmation in the coming sessions!
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22618 for a move towards 22693/22769. Bears will get active below 22466 for a move towards 22391/22315
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,11:00,12:11,01:05,02:32 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.67 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 45 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 16:34 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23529 closed below it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 23130 Trend has changed to Sell on Rise till below 22700
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22600 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.71.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22600 strike, followed by 22800 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22500 strike, followed by 22300 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22300-22700 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 556 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 1727 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22094-22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22724. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22724 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 22555 Tgt 22580, 22630 and 22666 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22495 Tgt 22444, 22400 and 22375 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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