FII Activity: Bearish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures with Signs of Position Unwinding
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bearish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively shorting 2948 contracts worth ₹512 crore. However, the net open interest increased by 3264 contracts, suggesting addition of fresh shorts.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs covered 995 long contracts, reducing bullish exposure.
- FIIs added 5676 short contracts, reinforcing a mild bearish outlook rather than aggressive selling.
Client Behavior
- Clients added 2344 long contracts, indicating profit booking or reducing bullish bets.
- Clients covered 560 short contracts, reducing their bearish exposure, suggesting some belief in market stability.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 16% long and 84% short positions → Maintaining an overall bearish stance but not aggressively adding shorts.
- Clients: Holding 71% long and 29 % short positions → Maintaining a more optimistic market outlook.
The market remains in a critical phase, with FIIs maintaining a bearish stance but showing signs of unwinding.
Nifty opened with a gap down but once again held the 22,800 support level, continuing the recent pattern of intraday recoveries from lower levels. This price action suggests accumulation at lower levels, but a break below 22,800 on a closing basis could trigger a steep decline.
Key Technical & Astro Insights
Repeated gap-down recoveries indicate possible accumulation, but confirmation is needed. Sun Ingress today – PSU stocks should be on high watch for potential upside. Nifty has formed an NR7 pattern (narrowest range in the last seven days) on an astro date, signaling a big move ahead.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Scenario:
- A close above 23,000 would confirm a short-term bottom and trigger an upside move.
- Upside Targets: 23,135 (first resistance), 23,300 (Octave Point).
Bearish Scenario:
- A break below 22,800 on a closing basis could lead to a sharp fall.
- Downside Targets: 22,650 / 22,500.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
Watch PSU stocks closely as Sun Ingress could drive momentum in this sector. If Nifty holds 22,800 and reclaims 23,000, a short-covering rally could trigger. Failure to hold 22,800 may invite aggressive selling, leading to sharp downside. NR7 pattern suggests an explosive move is coming—stay prepared!
Watch the video below for deeper insights:
Nifty has formed an NR21 pattern on the daily chart and an NR7 pattern on the weekly chart, indicating extreme price contraction. Such setups typically precede a strong directional move, making the coming sessions crucial for traders.
Key Factors Supporting a Trending Move
Sun Ingress Range in Play – Nifty is trading within a key astro influence zone, increasing volatility potential. Mercury Square Jupiter Aspect Today – A significant planetary aspect that often triggers sharp price moves, as discussed in the video below. Gann Price & Time Confluence – When price and time align, a major trend shift or breakout is highly probable.
What to Expect?
NR21 & NR7 indicate a volatility squeeze, meaning the longer the consolidation, the bigger the breakout/breakdown.
Be prepared for a trending move—volatility expansion is imminent.
Watch the video below for a detailed analysis
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22925 for a move towards 22979/23034/23090. Bears will get active below 22812 for a move towards 22757/22701/22646
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,11:30,12:12,01:16,02:56 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.66 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 2.6 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 27:23 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23529 closed below it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 23218 Trend has changed to Buy On Dips till above 22900
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.81.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23100 strike, followed by 23300 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22900 strike, followed by 22800 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22900-23300 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 3311 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 3907 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable. Price took support near 22751
When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23318 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22924 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 22868 Tgt 22900, 22945 and 23000 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22816 Tgt 22777, 22729 and 22666 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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