Mercury Sign Shift CRISIS: Nifty Rally? Astrology vs. Market Trends!

By | January 28, 2025 9:13 am

FII Activity: Bullish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures

  • Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a bullish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively buying 32,841 contracts worth ₹82 crore. This activity led to a significant decrease of 17,039 contracts in the net open interest.

    Breaking Down FII Activity:

    • FIIs added 7,518 long contracts.
    • FIIs covered 30,952 short contracts, drastically reducing their short exposure.

    Client Behavior:

    • Clients covered 19,743 long contracts.
    • Clients also covered 6,429 short contracts.

    Current Positioning in Index Futures:

    • FIIs: Holding 21% long and 79% short positions, reflecting a strong bearish bias despite recent long-leaning activity.
    • Clients: Holding 71% long and 29% short positions, indicating a more optimistic market outlook.

    Analysis:
    The data highlights a stark contrast in sentiment between FIIs and clients:

    1. FIIs continue to maintain a bearish stance despite reducing short positions and increasing long exposure.
    2. Clients appear to be in capitulation mode, having reduced the majority of their long positions and some shorts.

Traders’ Note:
The reduction in short exposure by FIIs suggests caution in maintaining aggressive bearish positions. However, with FIIs still holding a significant short bias, traders should monitor price action closely for any potential reversal signals.

As Discussed in Last Analysis

Yesterday, IT and Real Estate sectors showed positive momentum fueled by the Mars and Uranus Aspect. Today, markets are expected to open gap up, setting the stage for a potential breakout.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • For Bulls:
    • Bulls need to defend 23,170 (Sun Ingress low) to maintain command.
    • A close above 23,300 will confirm a breakout, bringing momentum that could push the index towards 23,385/24,485.
  • For Bears:
    • Bears will gain control only if the price breaks below 23,108.

Astrological Insight: Bayer Rule 9

As per Bayer Rule 9:
“Big changes in the market are seen when Mercury passes over 19 degrees 36 minutes of Scorpio and Sagittarius, as well as 24 degrees 14 minutes of Capricorn.”
This alignment indicates the potential for significant market moves today.

Weekly Close Importance:

Today being the weekly close, bulls need to secure a close in the 23,275-23,290 range for a bullish setup heading into next week’s expiry.

Traders’ Note:

  • Monitor price action closely at the critical levels of 23,300 for breakout confirmation.
  • A sustained move above this level could set the tone for further upside next week.
  • Bulls should focus on defending 23,170, while bears will only regain control below 23,108.

Nifty has broken its previous swing low of 22,976, which will now act as a strong resistance level. While Nifty is expected to open with a gap-up, traders should closely monitor the 22,976 level. A sustained move above this level could trigger a short-covering rally.

Today, we have a significant Mercury ingress into an Air sign, the implications of which I’ve discussed in detail in the video below. In the video, I’ve also referenced the COVID crash and the September 26, 2024, market top to provide deeper insights. Make sure to watch it for a comprehensive understanding.

As highlighted in the weekly analysis, prioritize intraday trading as Nifty is likely to remain volatile due to the multitude of astrological events unfolding.

 

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22937 for a move towards 23088/23239/23390. Bears will get active below 22816  for a move towards 22751/22666

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:40,10:15,11:45,02:45 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.18 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 14 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was covering of SHORT positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 06:44 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :23721 closed below it.

Nifty has closed below its 200 SMA @ 23945 Trend has changed to Buy on Dips once above 22976

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22900 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.66.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22900 strike, followed by 23000  strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22800 strike, followed by 22700 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22700-23000 levels.

Retail Activity in Options Market

According to today’s data:

  • Retail investors sold 400 K Call Option contracts and shorted 444 K Call Option contracts.
  • They also bought 694 K Put Option contracts and covered 461 K Put Option contracts, indicating a bearish bias in the market.

FII Activity in Options Market

  • Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) added 161 K Call Option contracts and covered 208 K Call Option contracts.
  • On the Put side, FIIs added 13.5 K Put Option contracts and shorted 284 K Put Option contracts, suggesting a shift toward a Neutral to Bullish bias.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 5015 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 6642  crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

Mental Toughness is my business. Make it part of yours. Keep a journal. Feed your mind.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23117. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22897, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 22970 Tgt 23025, 23066 and 23108 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 22920 Tgt 22888, 22824 and 22777 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

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