Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bearish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by Shorting 6055 contracts worth ₹365 crores, resulting in a increase of 2701 contracts in the net open interest. FIIs added 839 long contracts and added 11505 short contracts, indicating a preference for adding long positions and adding short positions. With a net FII long-short ratio of 0.34 , FIIs utilized the market fall to enter long positions and enter short positions in Nifty futures. Clients added 27939 long contracts and added 20667 short contracts. FII are holding 24 % Long and 76 % Shorts in Index Futures and Clients are holding 66 % Long and 34 % Shorts in Index Futures.
Nifty formed an Outside Bar candle today, with the price holding 24,000 on a closing basis. Strong consolidation is ongoing in Nifty, as the price continues to trade between the 1×1 and 3×4 Gann angles. Today, inflation data is expected to be on the higher side, around 5.80. Additionally, there are three important astro events today that could lead to intraday volatility. The 24,201-24,270 range is critical for both bulls and bears, as it represents a confluence of both the SAP and Gann Monthly TC. As long as bears hold below 24,201, they have the upper hand and could potentially break through the 24,000 level.
Important Astro Events:
- Moon Conjunct North Node — The North Node, also known as Rahu, often brings volatility.
- Bayer Rule 14: “Venus movements in geocentric longitude using a unit of 1°9’13”.”
- Rule No. 38: Mercury Latitude Heliocentric — “Significant tops and bottoms are often produced when Mercury, in this motion, passes certain degrees.”
Intraday traders can watch the first 15 minutes’ high and low to capture the trend for the day.
Nifty opened with a gap-up but was quickly sold into, as the price was unable to breach the first 15 minutes high. Once the Outside Bar low was broken, a waterfall decline followed. In the last 30 minutes, we saw a 150+ point decline, likely due to insiders anticipating the red-hot inflation data, which came in at 6.21%.
For us, we anticipated heightened volatility due to Rahu’s aspect on the market. The decline was largely driven by Reliance, HDFC Bank, and SBIN. As explained in the video below, 23,777 represents the 50% retracement level from the rally that started on June 4 and peaked on September 27, making it a crucial level to watch. If Nifty falls below 23,777, we could see a quick move towards the 200 SMA at 23,514. Bulls only have a chance to regain control if the price moves above 24,020.
Currently, the price is back to its 3×4 Gann angle support, and breaking below this support for two consecutive days could open up further downside potential, possibly towards 23,000.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23852 for a move towards 23930/24008/24086. Bears will get active below 23774 for a move towards 23697/23619
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:45,10:19,12:01,01:49,02:21 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty Sep Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.16 lakh cr , witnessing a addition of 4.2 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 07:43 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @25178 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :24201 close below it.
Nifty closed below its 100 SMA@24076 Trend is Sell on Rise till below 24001 .
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23900 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.80Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24000 strike, followed by 24200 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 23800 strike, followed by 23700 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23700-24400 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 3024 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 1854 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23218-23889-24600 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
To create money management, position size calculation or the elaboration of a profitable set of rules. All of these very useful tools are of little help if you are not able to use them in a disciplined manner
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24271 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24110, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23840 Tgt 23888, 23930 and 23985 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23800 Tgt 23777, 23729 and 23666 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.