Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bearish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by Shorting 107324 contracts worth ₹6861 crores, resulting in a decrease of 64486 contracts in the net open interest. FIIs covered 97891 long contracts and ADDED 57391 short contracts, indicating a preference for covering long positions and adding short positions. With a net FII long-short ratio of 3.97 , FIIs utilized the market fall to exit long positions and enter short positions in Nifty futures. Clients added 62780 long contracts and covered 73286 short contracts. FII are holding 66 % Long and 34 % Shorts in Index Futures and Clients are holding 47 % Long and 53 % Shorts in Index Futures.
Nifty made a top on 27th September at 26277 and has since dipped to 25794 , a correction of 483 points in just two trading sessions. We discussed the possibility of this move as per Bayer’s Rule, which was covered in the video below. Yesterday, we saw a Sun conjunct Mercury aspect, and tomorrow we have a trading holiday, along with a Double Lunar date. This suggests a likely gap opening on Thursday, so it’s advisable to carry overnight positions with proper hedging.
SEBI has not changed any framework regarding F&O, so that event is out of the way. The 24,389 level is an important Gann level that bulls need to hold for a bullish October. There’s a saying: “Sell off on the 1st day of expiry, and if the low holds, it often leads to a bullish expiry.” Any close below 28,729 will give the bears the upper hand.
Nifty continued its decline, showing the impact of the solar eclipse as discussed in the video below. Today, we have two important Bayer’s Rules coming into effect, which involve Mars—the planet of energy—adding fuel to the current market trend.
Bayer Rule 6: The price hits a bottom when Mars is at 16 degrees 35 minutes of a sign, plus 30 degrees.
Bayer Rule 33: Significant moves occur when Mars in Geocentric longitude passes over 16 degrees 55 minutes 46 seconds.
Intraday traders should watch the first 15 minutes’ high and low to capture the trend for the day. Nifty is down 3.5 % for the week, and with today being the weekly close, bulls and bears will battle over the 25281 level.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 25319 for a move towards 25399/25479/25559. Bears will get active below 25239 for a move towards 25159/25079/24998.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:31,12:18,01:25,02:24 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty Sep Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.33 lakh cr , witnessing a liquidation of 11.6 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a covering of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 02:48 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @25178 closed above it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :25089 close above it.
Nifty closed above its 20SMA @25450 Trend is Sell on Rise till below 25450
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 25250 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.88 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 25300 strike, followed by 25500 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 25100 strike, followed by 25000 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 25100-25400 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 15243 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 12913 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 25310-26063-26816 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
During this phase of the rule-finding and the clean implementation of your Trading system you are faced with mental conflicts. That’s the hardest part of the Trading education to resolve “Mental Conflicts”.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 26051. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 25600, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 25281 Tgt 25323, 25385 and 25444 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 25200 Tgt 25166, 25108 and 25066 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
25450 level fantastically worked Today..Thank you sir