FII Derivative Data Analysis for 1 August Trade in Nifty Future

The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds… Will Durant

Hope is the buzzword on financial markets around the world ? Hope of more QE,Hope of action from ECB ,Hope of RBI cutting rates but as a traders

HOPE is  your worst enemy.Think about how many trades you did on Hope and ended up being the biggest loosing trade.

July series ended on a firm note with a closing above the scared level of 5217 which will keep the momentum going on for bulls. FED and ECB meeting are lined up tomorrow and there course of action will decide the further trend of global market.

India is facing the worst power crisis of decade with almost 600 million people in dark because of failure of Norther,Easter and Western grids and our Power Minster SUSHIL KUMAR SHIND got promoted to Home Minster today,Such is the irony of Indian Politics.

 P CHIDAMBARAM will be the new FM, lets see how market reacts to this development.

1. FII  bought 8246 Contracts of NF ,worth 187 cores  with net OI increasing by 10292 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was up by 23 points and OI has increased by 10292 contracts  means FII had taken longs in NF. Rollover data gives the range of NF as 5210-5070 NF and today we have closed above the range which is bullish sign.

3. NS closed at 5229 which is above 5219 which we discussed yesterday, Bulls have been on rampage even though no rate cut by RBI(Read RBI view on Indian Economy Click on the link)  and firmly closing above 5219. We had a small correction today from 5218-5154 which is 64 points , so till dips are limited to 64 points it should be termed as correction only.

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5259  which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5200-5170 .Monthly time frame we had a strong closing and now above 5349 is the only resistance which needs to be conquered.

5. Nifty August OI is at 2.22 cores with an addition of 1.4 Lakh in OI,fresh longs added by HNI and Retailer.

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.13 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 3.2 lakh. So todays rise was backed by buying from lower levels.

7.  5400 CE saw an  addition  of 2.3 lakhs and total OI stands at 57 lakhs and immediate higher end of August series.Eventhough NS closed at 5229 there was no liquidation of 5200 CE infact it added 2 lakh in OI which suggests market participants are still hoping for nifty to slide below 5200. It will be interesting to watch Nifty in action tomorrow.

8. On Put side 5000 PE saw an unwinding  of 2 lakhs,immediate support of Nifty.4900-5500 PE added total of 14 lakhs in OI.5200 PE added 7 lakh in OI suggesting market participants are seeing one more rally above 5200 tomorrow.So there will be tussle between 5200 CE and PE for supremacy tomorrow. Consolidation will be best for market in range of 5170-5250 for few days before the next move as Nifty has rallied for 200 points in 3 days.

9.FII  bought 879 cores and DII sold 492  cores in cash segment.FII has pumped in 2372 cores in 3 days of August series in cash market alone.INR closed at 55.86  Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5177, Trend Changer at 5180 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5259 Tgt 5286,5310 and 5350

Sell below 5206 Tgt 5177,5154 and 5130 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

We do discussion is Live market to update Nifty levels If you are interested you can LIKE the page to get Real Time Updates.

Follow on Facebook during Market Hours:  http://www.facebook.com/pages/Brameshs-Tech/140117182685863

You can register your email address under Post In your Inbox(Right Side Column) if you want to receive mail instantaneously as soon as site get updated. You will receive a confirmation mail in your registered email address you need to click on link to get it confirmed.