1. FII bought 9477 Contracts of Index Futures worth 216 cores OI increased by 20063.
2. As Nifty Futures was up by 6 points with OI increased by200635 , Huge Short were covered by FII.
3. INR (http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/),Click on link to get live rate during market hours closed at new low of 55.59 so the low of 55 was protected and INR has started rising again,the same effect was seen in NIfty in dying hours as it closed below psychological support of 5000.
4.Nifty today closed above 4981 ie. 20 SMA which is technically bullish,Till it trades above 4981 bulls have upper hand. Hourly charts are overbought and dips till 4920 can happen as we have gaps and cool off in hourly charts will also be required. As Expiry is nearing and we have these griding mvoes so that premium of calls and puts gets eaten away by Option Writers.
5. Nifty May OI has decreased by 15 Lakhs .Total OI stands at 1.62 cores.Rollovers have started for June and till date 43 lakhs rollover have happened with NF range from 4825-5013.June series also added fresh 5 lakhs in OI and looks longs got rollovered.
6. Total F&O turnover was 1.47 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.6 lakh.So a grinding and range bound day before expiry.
7. 5100 CE has seen an addition of 5 lakhs total OI now stands at 69 lakhs,Highest in May series. 5000CE has OI of 56 lakhs with unwinding of 5.6 lakhs so now 5000 CE writers are loosing control and an early indication 5000 can get broken on closing basis.
8. On Put side 4700 PE is having highest OI of 81 lakhs making 4700 a strong base.4900 PE added 4.2 lakhs,Today FII PE buy price comes at 4817 which means they were active in 4800 PE and 4800 PE OI has increased by 9 lakhs with premium being Rs 2.5 , And we have GDP data on Friday so FII has taken worth a risk in buying 4800 PE at just Rs 2.5 so either they know Nifty will break 4920 tomorrow or they bought to hedge the longs. So 4800 PE should be on radar for traders as it will give an early indication if fall is coming.
9.FII bought 90 cores and DII sold 190 cores in cash segment.
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4782, Trend Changer at 4991 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
Buy above 5020 Tgt 5034,5058 and 5080
Sell below 4970 Tgt 4948,4920 and 4880 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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Hi bramesh,
I read your analysis daily. Today you are telling chances are 5000 will be broken with reduction in 5000 calls. You are also telling 4800 pe is being bought by FII so fall may come. It confuses me.
Another thing is that you said FII bought huge shorts. But as I see from month beginning they net sold over 2 lakh contract of nifty futures and OI increases to 4500 crores. How we can justify this? Am I missing something here>?
Dear Sir,
Why it confuses you. As OI has increased with Price rise it means shorts were covered and as per Option analysis it seems FII bought Put and a fall was warranted and same happened today.
Rgds,
Bramesh