Nifty Weekly View for 24 Jan 2011

Nifty Daily Chart

After 2 Weeks Nifty was able to show some green tick on weekly charts after a roller coaster trading with a gain of meagre 0.74%.

As seen in Daily chart Nifty in short term is trading in lower down trending channel while long term trendline is still intanct on Daily chart which will get breached around 5200 (wishful thinking).

[Click on Chart to Enlarge]

For next week will prove to be interesting as we have Expiry for January series and RBI rate hike decision on 25 th January and 26 January being a national holiday.

As such the correction we have observed as priced in 25 BPS rate hike but if rate hike comes to 50 BPS than we can see a knee jerk reaction on downside and bears can press hard on downside till 5500.

On Daily chart Nifty is facing resistance at 5750 levels and support at 5630-5640 range  Click on Link

Major move will come after break of this range either on upside and downside so wait for the range for taking positions.                                                                   

Nifty Fibo Chart

[Click on Chart to Enlarge]

On Daily chart we have held 200 DMA for 5 days and it should be relief for bulls and

BULL case is like we have saved 200 DMA and consolidated to form a base and rally to new high if RBI rate hike is only 25 BPS

Bear Case is like we had a fall now consolidating and the fall will continue till 5500,5400 levels till a panic bottom is not formed.

As trader we need to trade with Stop loss and levels.

If we do FIbo Retracement of NIfty from high of 6181 and low of 5622 following levels can prove resistance on Upside

Need to break 5750 on upside for tgt of 5835 and than 5920 which is 50 SMA.

Few close above 50 SMA @5920 can again put ball on BULL”S court

Nifty Weekly Pivot:5689

Resistance:5755 and 5813

Support:5631 and 5566

Nifty Weekly Chart

[Click on Chart to Enlarge]

Weekly chart show Nifty cracking the long term trendline and trading below it. Volumes are on lower end only as compared to previous week.

Nifty is trading in a new channel as marked in chart and  if it gets broken we can visit 5200 levels in next month.

Interesting Observation on Weekly Chart

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On Weekly chart an interesting observation has cropped up Nifty never closed below lower end of BOllinger band in entire bull run as i have marked in chart Weekly closing below 5615 will negate this view and we are in for a serious trouble on weeks to come.

Keep a close eye on Weekly closing of as it can give a brief preview of What in store for February series.