Nifty declines 4 days in row, Trading Strategy for 11 Mar

By | March 10, 2015 9:09 pm
15 Comments

FII

  • FII’s sold 34.1 K contract of Index Future worth 809 cores, 20.2 K Long contract were squared off by FII’s and 13.8 K  short contracts  were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased  by 6.4 K contract.
  • Nifty continued with its decline correcting 442 points in 4 trading session  and in the process broke its budget day low @8750 and closed well below its 20 SMA. On Hourly charts trendline support @ 8701/8720 range as shown in below chart and below that 8645/8630 range. As per gann box till 2X1 line is not crossed nifty will remaining under selling pressure. Largest correction seen in the current bull market is 666 points so still we can go down further another 200 points. 50 SMA @8638 should be watched closely in next 2 trading session.

nifty hourly

NIFTY - Gann Box

  • Nifty March Future Open Interest Volume is at 2.48 core with liquidation of 2 lakhs with increase in cost of carry, suggesting bottom fishers went long today in last 30 mins.Out of  36 Lakh Nifty OI  which was added in 9022-8916 , 29 lakh got liquidated in 4 session so 7 lakh are still holding out. Also NF premium is still 48 points which is still huge, premium needs to come in range of 20-30 points if short term bottom has to form.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 2.33 core with total contract traded at 4.8 lakh. PCR @0.99.
  • 9000  CE  OI at 56.3 lakh  so wall of resistance @ 9000 .8700/8900 CE added 5.6 lakhs,with 30.5 Lakh  yesterday so bears are in front foot with just 4 days of trading. FII sold 36 K CE longs and 5.6 K  CE were shorted by them.
  • 8500 PE OI@ 44.6  lakhs so strong base @ 8500. 8600/8700 PE  saw addition of 7.2 lakhs so bulls are warming up, but test will come tomorrow. FII added 43.7 K PE longs and 997 shorted  PE were covered by them.FII were mainly active in 8500/8600 PE. 
  • FII’s sold 748 cores  in Equity and DII bought 290 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 62.76 at 2 month high.

 

Buy above 8723 Tgt 8750 ,8767 and 8800 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8665 Tgt 8650,8620 and 8580 (Nifty Spot Levels)

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15 thoughts on “Nifty declines 4 days in row, Trading Strategy for 11 Mar”

  1. john

    Hi Bramesh, Could you please clarify how to find out whether longs have been squared off and shorts have been added and how many contracts? On march 11 post you have mentioned that 20.2 longs have been squared off and 13.8 shorts have been added and net OI decreased by is 6.4k contracts. Could you please explain how to find out this information. It would be great if you could explain in detail. thanks

    Reply ↓
  2. Sachin

    Hi Bramesh,

    Future premium was high and today it went up even higher …..If premium is high and open interest is also going high …isn’t that bullish??

    lil confused…your view is appreciated..

    Regards,
    Sachin

    Reply ↓
  3. Manas

    request you to please clarify how to interpret and trade basis trend deciding level. A previous link on this will be useful.

    Thanks

    Reply ↓
  7. Deepak Kumar

    Thanks Bramesh for detailed Open Interest Analysis. Elliott Wave Pattern is also suggesting a quick fall in next two session where 8470 looks possible. Tomorrow opening may clear next move of Nifty.

    Reply ↓
  11. mohitjain

    Brmesh ji fii unbinding calls nd sorting also nd buying putts also nd covring sorted puts in 2 days also sale 2700k index shoing another fall to 200 point in this week

    Reply ↓

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