Will RBI deliver on 3 May? Nifty Weekly Analysis

Next week 3 may we have our RBI policy, Expectation are high for rate cuts as Bank Nifty is up 1100 points in 8 trading days. If RBI disappoints the market we can see a corrective decline in market. As Nifty and Bank Nifty both have rallied before the event The market will take some cognizance of what has happened and just take a breather.Market has definitely factored in 25 Bps rate cut and so if we have a 25 bps cut on the policy day than we can see a definite sell of but if the governor surprises us with a 50 Bps along with a CRR cut than only we may see a rally above 5950.
The stock market remains closed on Wednesday, 1 May 2013, on account of Maharashtra Day. Trading Holiday for 2013 can be seen on this link.

Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 5830 achieved 2 weekly targets on upside.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts has broken the 13 Hour Moving Average Support which it took support in the rally from 5477-5931. Now this MA will act as resistance and any up move will get sold into till 5905 is not broken on closing basis.

Nifty Gaps

For Nifty traders who follow gap trading there are 1 trade gaps in the range of 5400-6000 and all other gaps got filled.

5836-5853
5477-5446

Nifty Daily Chart

As per last week analysis Nifty was able to overcome the Falling trendline resistance at 5830 with a gap up opening and continued with its rally on upside. 50 DMA@5767 will act as strong support now , which Nifty was unable to cross previously for next 5 attempts.

Fibonacci technique

Fibonacci fan

Nifty daily chart took exact support at Fibo Fans and bounced back as expected.Trading between the Fibo fans resistance comes at 6000 and support at 5786

Fibo Retracement

As per of Fibo Retracement theory Nifty took resitane at 61.8% retracement of 5477-6112. Unable to cross golden ratio at 5871 on closing basis can spell trouble for bears. Crossing the same on Monday can lead to next resistance of 5971

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty closed the week positive with gain of 88 points @5871.Nifty gave a follow up of Bullish engulfing pattern but unable to cross the crucial resistance of 5971 as marked by horizontal blue line.

On Weekly charts Nifty is taking resistance at 21 Week EMA and ADX is also suggesting trend momentum is fading suggesting pullback can continue further which started last week. Nifty is already pulled of 65 points from recent high.