Nifty’s Bullish Reversal Fails as Bears Seize Control Ahead of a Pivotal Monthly Close

The market has delivered a decisive verdict: the bullish reversal has failed. The Nifty’s inability to even test the critical 25,632 resistance level is a sign of profound weakness. The bears remain in absolute command, having successfully pushed the price down to the 25,400 support before a minor pullback. The battle for trend control is over, and the focus now shifts to how deep this new bearish leg can go, with all eyes on the crucial monthly closing price.

The powerful astrological backdrop remains in full effect. The chaotic, reversal-prone energy of Mercury Retrograde and the frustrated, agitated tension of the Mars-Saturn aspect continue to promise a “trending move,” and yesterday’s action has now confirmed that this trend is to the downside.

The Bearish Objective: The Quest for a Perfect Monthly Doji

The bears have a clear and technically significant objective for the final day of the month. A gap-down opening is the probable scenario, which will immediately put the day’s critical support levels to the test.

• The Breakdown Trigger: The most important level to watch is 25,400. A decisive break below this support is the definitive signal that the bears are initiating the next major wave of selling.

• The Ultimate Target: The primary objective for the bears is to drive the price down to the February month open at 25,333. A monthly close near this level would achieve a powerful technical feat: it would “paint the chart” with a perfect monthly Doji candlestick. This would be a monument to a full month of indecision and would perfectly set the stage for a major, volatility-driven trend in the month ahead.

The High-Stakes Battleground for a New Trend

While the bearish case is dominant, the bulls have one last line of defense. The entire day’s trend will be fought over two clearly defined breakout and breakdown levels.

The Bearish Breakdown Scenario

• The Trigger: A decisive and sustained move below 25,400.

• The Analysis: A break of this support level is a definitive signal that the bearish trend is accelerating, with the path opening towards the 25,333 target and potentially lower.

The Unlikely Bullish Breakout Scenario

• The Trigger: A decisive and sustained move above 25,555.

• The Analysis: Only a powerful and unexpected breakout above this overhead resistance could invalidate the overwhelming bearish case. This would be a sign of a major short squeeze and a reversal of sentiment.

Conclusion

The bulls have failed their test, and the bears are now firmly in control of the market’s trajectory. The astrological environment is ripe for a powerful, trending move to the downside. The immediate battle will be for control of the 25,400 support. A breakdown here is the highest probability outcome, with the bears aiming for a technically perfect and psychologically damaging monthly close near 25,333. Prepare for a decisive and potentially high-velocity session.

The Nifty options market is radiating signals of intense bearish pressure and a market firmly in the grip of sellers. A profoundly negative Put-Call Ratio (PCR) of just 0.69 is the definitive evidence of this, indicating that call open interest has massively overwhelmed that of puts. This is the unmistakable signature of a market where aggressive call writers have built a colossal wall of resistance, reflecting their supreme confidence that any attempt at a rally will be brutally suppressed.

This intense bearish pressure has pinned the market exactly at its financial center of gravity, the Max Pain point of 25,500. With the spot price trading at 25,496, the index is perfectly trapped, confirming the absolute control of large institutional option sellers who are profiting from this stalemate.

A deep dive into the participant data reveals the engine behind this bearish structure:

• Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) executed a classic and direct bearish strategy. They were significant net sellers of call options (building the resistance wall) and net buyers of put options (actively buying insurance and betting on a fall). This two-pronged action shows clear institutional conviction that the risk is firmly to the downside.

This has forged a clear and formidable battlefield:

• Resistance: A “Great Wall of Calls” is located at the 25,600 strike, which now acts as the primary and most formidable ceiling. The 25,500 Max Pain level is the immediate resistance.

• Support: On the downside, a significant support floor has been built by put writers at 25,300. The ultimate line of defense and psychological support is located at 25,000.

In conclusion, the Nifty is locked in a bear grip, dominated by institutional selling pressure. The path of least resistance is firmly sideways to down. The market is trapped in a high-tension range, and any relief rally is likely to be sold into aggressively at the 25,500-25,600 zone.