As we transition into the March derivative series, the market landscape is shifting from a period of heavy distribution to one of high-stakes recovery. While the seasonal bias is historically strong, the F&O data suggests that institutional players are being highly tactical, favoring a “selective long” approach over a blind broad-market bet.
Here is a deep dive into the March series setup, combining historical data, the latest FII positioning, and the recent market cycle.
1. Historical Performance: A Seasonality Edge
In the world of trading, seasonality is a wind at your back. Looking at the last five years, the Nifty has shown a consistent tendency to rally in March—with 2021 being the sole outlier.
| Year | Nifty Move (pts) | Nifty Change | Bias |
| 2021 | -772 | -5% | ❌ Bearish |
| 2022 | +1217 | +7.5% | ✅ Bullish |
| 2023 | +870 | +5% | ✅ Bullish |
| 2024 | +344 | +1.6% | ✅ Bullish |
| 2025 | +692 | +3% | ✅ Bullish |
The Insight: With 4 out of the last 5 years ending in the green, the bias is positive. The average move across these five years is approximately +779 points, though volatility has been compressing since 2022.
2. Recent Market Cycle: From Distribution to Recovery
Analyzing the recent monthly moves reveals a classic market evolution. We have moved through the “pain” phase and are now entering what looks like a new trend.
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Oct: Strong Positive (Peak)
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Nov: Mild Positive (Topping out)
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Dec: Slight Negative (Initial Distribution)
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Jan: Weak (Full Consolidation)
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Feb: Recovery (Early Rebound)
Interpretation: The market has successfully navigated a phase of Distribution → Consolidation → Early Recovery. This positions the March series as a “Continuation Phase,” where the recovery seen in February attempts to turn into a sustained trend.
3. F&O Positioning: The FII “Long” Surge
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are finally putting their money where their mouth is.
FII Long Exposure (Index Futures):
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January: 9%
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February: 12%
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March: 21%
Interpretation: A sharp increase to 21% marks a significant shift. FIIs are adding aggressive directional exposure into March. While not yet at “overcrowded” levels, the momentum of the build-up is decidedly bullish.
Nifty Rollovers:
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Current: 68%
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Previous: 71%
Interpretation: Slightly lower rollovers suggest selective positioning. Traders are not fully committed across every sector; they are being surgical, likely rotating out of weak sectors and into those showing momentum.
4. Key Triggers: The Macro Overlay
The March series is “Event-Heavy,” meaning price action will be sensitive to:
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Global Policy: Trump’s tariff comments and the State of the Union address are keeping the “Global Overlay” volatile.
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Geopolitics: US–Iran talks will dictate crude oil prices and Rupee stability.
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Domestic Data: Insurance and vehicle sales will provide the fundamental backing to the technical move.
5. Critical Gann Time Turn Dates
Watch for sharp trend changes on these specific dates (+/− 1 trading day):
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March 4th (Main 55-Day Cycle): This is the most critical date for the first half of the series. The market is currently under “cycle pressure” until this date. A breakout or breakdown on March 4th usually dictates the trend for the next 5-7 days.
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March 11th (The Setup): Often marks a minor swing high or low where the “smart money” resets their positions.
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March 19th (The V-Bottom / Magnetic Low): Based on the Jupiter Direct cycle and historical lunar clusters, this date is a high-probability “Trend Reversal” point. If the market is falling into this date, look for a sharp recovery (V-Bottom).
6. Nifty Gann Square of 9: Price Targets
Based on the current price action, these are the “natural” mathematical levels for the March series:
| Level Type | Nifty Price Level | Significance |
| Major Resistance | 26,341 | The ultimate target for the March bull run. |
| Immediate Resistance | 26,002 | The psychological and Gann barrier. A close above this signals a fresh breakout. |
| Pivot / Neutral Zone | 25,880 | The “Fair Value” for the series. |
| Immediate Support | 25,370 | The line in the sand for the bulls. |
7. Market Holidays & Expiry (March 2026)
Plan your positions around these closures to avoid “theta decay” or liquidity gaps:
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March 3 (Tuesday): Holi (Market Closed)
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March 26 (Thursday): Shri Ram Navami (Market Closed / Note: This may affect the Weekly/Monthly expiry schedule)
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March 31 (Tuesday): Shri Mahavir Jayanti (Market Closed)
Final Structured Insight
| Factor | Status | Bias |
| Seasonality | 4/5 Years Positive | Positive |
| FII Positioning | Increasing Longs (21%) | Bullish |
| Rollovers | 68% vs 71% | Slightly Cautious |
| Triggers | Tariffs / Geopolitics | Event-Heavy |
The Bottom Line: The structure is leaning bullish, and the FIIs are starting to buy in. However, the slightly lower rollovers tell us this is a “show me” market. The bias is for a continuation of the recovery, provided the global macro triggers don’t deliver a 2021-style shock.