The Great Short Squeeze: Nifty’s 1100-Point Rocket & The Expiry Bloodbath

The “impossible” has happened. After months of grueling tariffs and bearish sentiment, the India-U.S. Trade Deal has landed like a lightning bolt. With GIFT Nifty indicating a staggering 1100-point gap up, we aren’t just looking at a “strong opening”—we are looking at one of the largest single-day wealth redistributions in the history of the Indian derivatives market.

As we head into the February 4 weekly expiry, the stage is set for a historic “Short Squeeze.”

1. The Derivatives “Trap”: FIIs vs. Retail

The data you provided paints a picture of a massive “Polarity Trap.” Before the trade deal news broke, the “Big Boys” (FIIs) were positioned for a crash, while Retail was betting on a bounce.

The Positioning Heatmap

Participant	Index Futures	Index Calls	Index Puts	Sentiment
FIIs	1.97 Lakh Shorts	1.74 Lakh Shorts	4.18 Lakh Longs	Ultra Bearish
Retail	1.28 Lakh Longs	2.79 Lakh Longs	5.20 Lakh Shorts	Ultra Bullish

The Chaos Factor

FIIs are Trapped: With nearly 2 lakh short contracts in futures and 1.74 lakh short calls, FIIs are facing infinite risk. A 1100-point gap means these positions will open deep “In-The-Money” (ITM). To exit, FIIs must buy back their shorts, adding massive fuel to the upward fire.
Retail’s Jackpot: Retail traders, who are often mocked for being “wrong,” are sitting on a goldmine. However, the 5.2 lakh short puts mean they were effectively “selling insurance” to the FIIs. As the market gaps up, those puts will expire worthless, rewarding the retail sellers handsomely.

2. Gann & Astro: The Mathematical Alignment

At Bramesh Tech Analysis, we don’t just look at the news; we look at the Time and Price vibrations. This move was mathematically signaled..

The Mercury-Rahu “Lightning” Trigger

Today, February 3, 2026, marks the exact Mercury-Rahu Conjunction in Aquarius.

Mercury rules trade and commerce.
Rahu rules sudden, extreme, and disruptive events.
Aquarius rules global networks and technology. The announcement of the 18% reciprocal tariff deal is a literal manifestation of this “Astro-Vibration.” It is a radical, high-speed shift in the trade narrative.

Gann Levels for the Expiry

With a gap of this magnitude, the old resistance levels are incinerated.

Nifty Magnet: The 26,002 level (Square of 9) has been smashed. The next “Station” is 26,651.
Bank Nifty Magnet: Bank Nifty has breached the 60000 breakout door. With the 512-degree Solar Cycle active until Feb 26, the target of 64000 is now a high-probability reality.

3. How to Trade This “Monster Gap”

A 1100-point gap creates a “Vacuum Zone.” Here is the tactical plan:

Avoid the “First 15-Minute” Chasing: Let the FII short-covering frenzy settle. If the Nifty holds above the opening 5-minute candle low, the trend is vertical.
The Weekly Expiry (Feb 4) Strategy: Expect high volatility. Call writers at 25,500 and 26,000 will be scrambling to cover. This “Gamma Blast” could push Nifty even higher than the GIFT Nifty suggests.
Bank Nifty Leadership: Banks are the primary recipients of FII capital flows. Watch the 60000 level; as long as we stay above it, every “dip” is a buying opportunity for the target of 63800-64000.

Final Word: Respect the Cycle

The trade deal provided the fundamental fuel, but the 144-day Gann Cycle provided the timing. We have officially exited the “Trade Winter” and entered a “Mega Bull” phase. For those holding shorts: The market has no mercy; cut your losses when the vibration shifts.