Nifty on a Knife’s Edge: A Perfect Doji Sets the Stage for a Weekly Showdown

The Great Unwinding: A Market in Full Retreat as Both Bulls and Bears Capitulate

On November 13, 2025, the Nifty Index Futures market witnessed a massive and decisive deleveraging event. While the headline shows Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) as net buyers of 1,698 contracts, this is a profoundly misleading figure. The true story of the day is one of mass exodus and capitulation from all sides, confirmed by a colossal collapse in Open Interest (OI) of 4,588 contracts.

This was not a session of new trends being born; it was a session where the old, entrenched trend died an exhaustive death. This is the data signature of a major market turning point.

Decoding the Data: The End of an Era

1. The FII’s “Deceptive” Buy: Strategic Profit-Taking, Not a Bullish Pivot
The most crucial piece of the puzzle is how FIIs were net buyers, yet their positioning became even more bearish, with their long-short ratio falling to a new extreme of 0.13. This is the key:

• They covered 3,318 short contracts, taking substantial profits on their massively successful bearish campaign.

• Simultaneously, they covered 1,025 long contracts, dumping the last of their negligible bullish positions.

They took partial profits on their massive short book while almost completely abandoning their tiny long book. In relative terms, they gave up on the long side even faster than they took profits on the short side, hence the ratio becoming even more extreme. This was not a flip to a bullish stance; it was the strategic exit and profit-realization phase of their bearish assault.

2. The Main Event: Client Capitulation on a Massive Scale
The most stunning number of the day is from the client segment, which has been stubbornly bullish for weeks. They finally broke, covering an immense 8,564 long contracts. This is the unmistakable signal of mass capitulation. This is not a strategic adjustment; it is forced liquidation and a surrender to overwhelming financial and psychological pain. This huge wave of selling from panicked retail traders provided the perfect liquidity for the FIIs to buy back their profitable shorts.

3. The OI Collapse: The Market Hollows Out
The massive drop in Open Interest is the final confirmation of the theme. The market is deleveraging at a rapid pace. This is what it looks like when both sides are fleeing the battlefield:

• The retail bulls are panic-selling to get out.

• The institutional bears are buying back to take profits.

The net result is a market that is “hollowing out,” with participation rapidly shrinking. This creates a brittle and unstable structure.

Key Implications for Traders

• The Aggressive Bear Trend is Over: The primary engine of the decline—aggressive FII shorting—has officially ended. The FIIs are no longer selling; they are buying back.

• The Risk of a Violent Short Squeeze is Now at Maximum: This is a classic setup for a vicious short squeeze. The market has just undergone a mass liquidation of its longs, meaning the supply of natural sellers is now exhausted. At the same time, a huge number of short positions still exist. Any piece of positive news can now trigger a powerful rally as the remaining shorts scramble to buy back their positions in a market with very few sellers.

• A Bottoming Process Has Begun: This is not the signal of a new, healthy bull market. It is the signal that the selling has reached its climax and a bottoming process is now underway. This phase is often characterized by extreme volatility, sharp rallies, and retests of the lows as the market tries to find a new equilibrium.

• The Narrative Has Fundamentally Shifted: The market psychology is no longer about “how low can it go?”. It is now about “where is the bottom?”. This change in focus from trend continuation to reversal is a major sea change.

Conclusion

This data signals the climactic end of the recent bearish campaign. The narrative is dominated by the capitulation of retail longs and the strategic profit-taking of institutional bears. The aggressive, one-sided trend is over. While the path ahead will likely be volatile and chaotic, the overwhelming selling pressure has been exhausted, and the market is now in a state where the risk of a sharp, painful, and sudden rally (a short squeeze) is exceptionally high.

Last Analysis can be read here 

The Nifty market is coiled in a state of extreme tension, perfectly encapsulated by the previous session’s price action. A powerful bullish attempt to conquer the psychological 26,000 level was decisively rejected in the final hours, leading to a wave of expiry-related selling that drove the market back down to form a perfect Doji candlestick. This is a monument to indecision, a sign of a market in a state of perfect, high-stakes equilibrium where neither bulls nor bears could claim victory.

This fragile truce is about to be shattered. A confluence of a major political news event and a potent astrological aspect will force the market to choose its direction, making today’s crucial weekly close a potential turning point for the month ahead.

1. The Political Catalyst: The Bihar Election Verdict

The initial market volatility will be driven by the official Bihar election results. As your analysis correctly highlights, exit polls are often misleading, and a tight or unexpected result could lead to a chaotic, knee-jerk reaction. This news event serves as the primary catalyst that will force the market out of the indecisive state reflected by the Doji. The initial gap could be misleading, and the true, sustainable trend will only emerge after the initial emotional reactions are absorbed.

2. The Astrological Trigger & The Reliance “Tell”

Acting on a deeper, more structural level is the Venus-Mercury HELIO Opposition. Your identification of this as a “Very Important Aspect for Swing Trading” is critical. This is not a fleeting intraday aspect; it signals a time for a major decision on value and commerce.

Your directive to watch Reliance is the key to decoding this transit’s impact. With Mercury’s involvement, the Nifty’s heavyweight champion, Reliance, becomes the ultimate “tell.” Its performance today will likely reveal the market’s true internal conviction, separate from the political noise.

• If Reliance is strong, it could provide the necessary leadership to validate a bullish breakout, regardless of initial election volatility.

• If Reliance is weak, it will act as a major drag, likely confirming the Doji as a bearish reversal signal and pulling the entire index down.

3. The Definitive Battle for the Weekly Close

With the weekly closing today, the stakes are immensely high. The market must now resolve the indecision of the Doji, and the battle lines are drawn with absolute clarity.

• The Bullish Objective (A Weekly Close > 26,010): For the bulls, this is their only mission. A close above this level would invalidate the bearish potential of the Doji, prove the failed breakout was a temporary setback, and trap the sellers. This would confirm a new, higher trading range and a continuation of the uptrend.

• The Bearish Objective (A Weekly Close < 25,711): The bears will view the Doji as a sign of bullish exhaustion. Their goal is to capitalize on this, reject the highs, and force a weak weekly close below 25,711. This would confirm the Doji as a classic reversal pattern and signal that the market is ready for a significant correction.

Conclusion

The market is perfectly poised at a moment of truth. A powerful technical pattern of indecision (the Doji) is about to be resolved by a powerful political catalyst and a significant astrological trigger. Watch Reliance as the internal market leader, but ultimately, the entire battle comes down to the weekly closing price. The struggle between 26,010 and 25,711 is not just for the day; it’s a fight to define the market’s trend for the coming weeks. Prepare for a volatile and decisive session.

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 25927 for a move towards 26007/26087. Bears will get active below 25848   for a move towards 25768/25688

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:18,11:25,01:45,02:18 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty Oct Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.75 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1.7 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was closuer of SHORT positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 30:20 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @26104 closed below it. 

 In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 383 cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 3091  cr.

A Bullish Tide Rises: Sentiment Flips as Nifty Battles at the Key 25,900 Pivot

The Nifty options market has undergone a dramatic and decisive sentiment reversal, signaling that the bears have lost control and a new, more confident market environment has emerged. For the first time in recent memory, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has surged past the equilibrium mark to a solidly bullish 1.06. This indicates that the total value of open put positions now exceeds that of calls, a clear sign that fear has been replaced by a strong belief that a market bottom is firmly in place.

However, this newfound optimism is now facing its first major test, with the spot price at 25,879 challenging the critical pivot and Max Pain level of 25,900.

The Story of a Bullish PCR and Max Pain

A PCR above 1.0 is a powerful indicator. It signifies that put writers, who are generally considered the “smart money,” are aggressively selling puts, confident that the market will not fall significantly. This activity creates a strong structural support floor. The Max Pain level at 25,900 reinforces this by acting as a powerful gravitational force. This is the price at which the maximum number of option buyers (both bull and bear) would see their positions expire worthless, maximizing the profit for the sellers. The market is being inexorably drawn to this key psychological and financial pivot point.

Defining the New Battlefield: The OI Structure

The options chain chart clearly maps out the current power structure:

• Ultimate Resistance: A colossal “Great Wall of Calls” stands at the 26,000 strike. This is the single largest concentration of Open Interest and represents a formidable barrier that will absorb immense buying pressure. It is the bulls’ primary objective to conquer.

• Immediate Pivot / Resistance: The 25,900 strike is the immediate battleground, where significant call and put OI are in direct conflict.

• Major Support: A multi-layered support structure is now visible. The highest concentration of puts stands at the 25,500 strike, with another strong base at 25,800. This thicket of support provides a strong cushion against any potential declines.

Diverging Strategies: The Cautious Institutions vs. The Optimistic Retail

The most fascinating story comes from the conflicting actions of the key market players:

• Retail’s Bullish Chase: Retail traders are exhibiting strong bullish conviction. They were significant net buyers of call options (+66K contracts), a clear speculative bet that the market is about to break out above 26,000. Their neutral activity in puts shows their focus is firmly on the upside.

• FIIs’ Cautious Hedging: In a stark and telling contrast, Foreign Institutional Investors are expressing extreme caution. While they were perfectly neutral on the call side, their most significant action was being large net buyers of put options (+41.7K contracts). This is a classic hedging strategy. It suggests that while they are not actively betting against the market, they are spending significant capital to buy insurance against a sudden, unexpected drop. They are protecting their large cash market portfolios from a potential “rug pull” event.

Conclusion

The Nifty is in a fascinating state of “bullish fragility.” The broad market sentiment, led by retail optimism and put writers, has turned decisively positive. A strong support floor has been built, and the market is challenging its key overhead resistance levels. However, the cautious hedging activity from the FIIs is a major warning signal. It indicates that the “smart money” is not fully convinced by this rally and sees significant underlying risk. The most likely outcome is a continued, volatile battle around the 25,900-26,000 zone. While the path of least resistance appears to be upwards, the FIIs’ actions suggest the rally is built on a potentially unstable foundation.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 25881 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 25999 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 25900 Tgt 25927, 25963  and 26010 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 25864 Tgt 25824, 25800  and 25777 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

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