Nifty Outlook: Volatility Looms Amid Mars Transit & FOMC Risk

By | June 17, 2025 8:49 pm
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FII & Client Activity – Index Futures Update for 17 June 2025

On 17 June 2025, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a Bullish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market.

Key Highlights

Contracts Bought by FIIs: 1170
Total Value: ₹214 crore
Net Open Interest (OI): Increased by 978 contracts → Indicates fresh positions being built, particularly long-side.

Breaking Down FII Activity

  • ✔ FIIs added: 1219 long contracts

  • ✔ FIIs covered: 1041 short contracts

  • Interpretation: Subtle, yet notable bullish intent from FIIs — building fresh longs while trimming shorts.

Client Behavior

  • ✔ Clients added: 3179 long contracts

  • ✔ Clients covered: 1379 short contracts

  • Interpretation: Clients are also lapping up longs before FOMC

Current Positioning Snapshot

Participant Long % Short % Long:Short Ratio
FIIs 21% 79% 0.26
Clients 61% 39% 1.55

Why Trading Education Is Crucial For Success & Profit

Nifty continued to remain range-bound, with notable weakness in market breadth—38 components of the index closed in the red. This reflects underlying bearish sentiment despite the tight range.

Today marked the initial signs of Mars changing houses (as discussed in the video below), and we’ve historically observed 300–500 point moves in Nifty around such astro events. So far, today’s move has been limited to ~92points. Based on past data and astro-Gann confluence, we could see a significant move of 200–300 points in the next trading session.

Key Technical Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance Zone:

    • Gann Wave Level: 24936 

    • Gann Monthly TC Level: 24858 
      As long as price remains below these levels, bears retain control.

  • ⚠️ Support Trigger:

    • A break below 24671  could open the door to a swift and deeper correction.

Macro Alert:
The FOMC policy meeting outcome is due soon, and this could inject fresh volatility into global markets. Given this backdrop:

️ It is advisable to carry overnight positions only with proper hedges in place.

Trading Outlook:
With planetary shifts aligning and key Gann levels being tested, traders should be prepared for directional momentum in Nifty over the next 1–2 sessions.

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24904 for a move towards 25063/25222. Bears will get active below 24746 for a move towards 24587/24428

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:20,10:20,12:22,01:40,02:47 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.15 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1.8 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was covering of SHORT positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 12:38 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @24321 closed above it.

Nifty Gann Monthly Buy Level : 24822 — Closed above it

Nifty Gann Monthly Buy Level : 24669

Nifty has closed above its 20 SMA @ 24841 Trend is Buy on Dips till above 24800.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24800  and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.83.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 25000 strike, followed by 25100 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24800 strike, followed by 24700 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24700-25000 levels.

Derivatives Market Snapshot – 18 June 2025
Retail & FII Options Activity Breakdown

Understanding options flow from both retail and institutional segments helps gauge underlying market sentiment. Here’s a comprehensive overview of today’s activity.

Retail Activity in Options Market

Call Options:

  • ➕ Added: 533K contracts

  • ➖ Shorted: 385K contracts

Put Options:

  • Covered: 61.6K contracts

  • Covered: 9K contracts

Retail Sentiment Insight:
Retail traders are displaying a mildly bullish bias by aggressively adding call positions and covering puts, indicating expectations of a potential upside continuation or a shift in trend.

‍ FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) Activity in Options Market

Call Options:

  • ➕ Added: 21.7K contracts

  • Covered: 7.9K contracts

Put Options:

  • Covered: 1K contracts

  • Covered: 25.3K contracts

FII Sentiment Insight:
FIIs are less aggressively positioned, but the net covering of both calls and puts reflects volatility compression or a wait-and-watch stance ahead of macro catalysts (such as the FOMC outcome).

Key Takeaways:

  • Retail flow leans toward bullish momentum, possibly playing for short-term upside.

  • FIIs appear to be reducing exposure amid rising global uncertainty—suggesting a potential volatility event on the horizon.

  • Combined, the data reflects positioning for a directional breakout, likely influenced by upcoming global cues.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 1483  cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 8207 cr.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23037-23722-24408-25134-25860 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable. 

Be patient. The market is constantly changing, and it’s important to be patient when trading. Don’t expect to make a lot of money overnight. Be patient and let the market work in your favor.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24930. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24899 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 24868 Tgt 24920, 24975 and 25016 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 24808 Tgt 24777, 24729 and 24685 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

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