FIIs Maintain Bullish Bias in Nifty Futures – May 12, 2024
On May 12, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to show a bullish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market by buying 4,668 contracts worth ₹772 crore. Despite this, there was a net open interest (OI) decrease of 1,440 contracts, suggesting that the move may be a mix of long additions and short covering — rather than aggressive fresh exposure.
FII Activity Breakdown:
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✔ Contracts Bought: 4,668
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✔ Notional Value: ₹772 crore
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Net OI Change: –1,440 contracts
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Interpretation:
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A decrease in OI along with buying suggests bullish sentiment, but with a tilt toward position lightening after India Pakistan Ceasfire
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Bank Nifty found strong support at the 53,500 zone, forming a textbook Gravestone Doji candle—a classic sign of potential reversal, especially after a recent decline. As noted in our previous analysis, the Mercury sign change and Full Moon cycle often mark major trend inflection points.
Macro + Sentiment Shift:
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Overnight ceasefire developments and no major escalation on the India-Pakistan front suggest a cooling of tensions.
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Expect a gap-up opening, accompanied by a likely decline in India VIX.
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All out-of-the-money (OTM) options are expected to see premium erosion due to volatility crush.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
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Support Held: 53,500
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Bullish Confirmation: Close above 54,008
→ Will validate the Doji reversal and can trigger further short covering.
Intraday Trading Strategy:
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Use the first 15-minute high and low to determine intraday trend direction.
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A break above the initial high with volume confirmation could signal trend continuation toward 54,500–54,800.
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If price fails to hold above 53,800, expect intraday profit booking.
Final Thought:
The market appears poised for a relief rally driven by macro sentiment, astro alignment, and technical support. However, follow-through price action post-gap-up will be critical to confirm trend strength.
Bank Nifty Surges 3.3% – Highest One-Day Gain in 4 Years
Bank Nifty posted a remarkable 3.3% rally, marking its strongest single-day gain in four years. This explosive move was driven by a confluence of Gann and Astro cycles as discussed in below video, as highlighted in our prior analysis. The sharp decline in India VIX also contributed, leading to significant erosion in OTM option premiums — a classic setup for trending markets.
Technical & Sentiment Snapshot:
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Index Performance: +3.3%
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VIX Impact: Cooling volatility crushed option premiums, particularly in far OTM strikes
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Astro-Gann Alignment: Confirmed trend acceleration phase
Key Level to Watch:
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Crucial Support: 55,000
→ As long as Bank Nifty sustains above this level, the structure remains strongly bullish.
→ Holding 55,000 opens up potential for a fresh all-time high by May 20.
Bank Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 55417 for a move towards 55889/56363. Bears will get active below 54948 for a move towards 54480/54014.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:42,11:37,12:32,02:44 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Bank Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 19.1 lakh, with addition of 1.14 lakh contracts. Additionally, the Increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a addition of LONG positions today.
Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 11:01 and Bank Nifty Rollover Cost is @55480 closed above it.
Bank Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :54467 closed above it.
Bank Nifty closed ABOVE its 20 SMA @54269 ,Trend is Buy on Dips once above 54300
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 53548-55141-56734. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 55000 strike, followed by the 55500 strike. On the put side, the 54500 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 54000 strike.This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 54500-55500 range.
The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 55000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.88 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .
Trading is not about being right—it’s about managing risk. Doubling down is the arrogance of certainty meeting the brutality of randomness. The market doesn’t care about your conviction; it only respects survival.
For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 55003. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 55302, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
BANK Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 55470 Tgt 55610, 55777 and 55950 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 55250 Tgt 55135, 55012 and 54805 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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