FIIs Turn Bearish in Nifty Futures – May 10, 2024
On May 10, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) adopted a bearish stance in the Nifty Index Futures segment by shorting 11,110 contracts worth ₹2,005 crore. Despite this, there was a net open interest (OI) decrease of 11,594 contracts, indicating a mix of long liquidation and some fresh shorting.
FII Activity Breakdown:
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✔ Longs Covered: 12,420 contracts
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✔ Shorts Added: 2,464 contracts
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Net OI Change: –11,594 contracts
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FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.91
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Positioning: 48% Long : 52% Short
Interpretation:
The significant unwinding of longs along with moderate short additions signals a defensive shift in sentiment, with FIIs becoming increasingly cautious heading into the new week.
Client Activity Snapshot:
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✔ Longs Added: 4,779 contracts
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✔ Shorts Covered: 9,313 contracts
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Client Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.84
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Positioning: 46% Long : 54% Short
Interpretation:
Clients are reducing bearish bets while cautiously adding longs—suggesting an attempt to bottom fish or prepare for a bounce, possibly aligned with expected cooling in geopolitical risk and Mercury’s sign change.
Market Implications:
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FIIs exiting longs aggressively indicates they are hedging against further downside or short-term volatility.
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Clients are shifting slightly bullish, which could result in a short-term rebound if global cues improve.
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Key support at 23,900–24,000 must hold to avoid deeper correction.
Trading Consistency & Discipline: Key to Long-Term Success
Nifty opened with a gap down on heightened India-Pakistan tensions, following a close below the critical 24,389 Gann level. However, the index found strong support at the Gann angle zone of 23,900–23,935, which has temporarily halted the decline.
Key Technical Levels:
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Support:
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Gann angle zone: 23,900–23,935
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A break below this may invite further selling pressure toward 23,800/23,666
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Resistance (Weekly Close Watch):
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24,000–24,054
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Bulls need a close above this zone for a positive weekly close and potential recovery early next week
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Astro Outlook: Mercury Sign Change This Weekend
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Mercury’s ingress over the weekend is known to trigger trend reversals or gap openings, especially when aligned with geopolitical stress.
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This could lead to sharp directional moves in early trade next week — traders should be prepared.
Trading Strategy:
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Watch for a sustained move above 24,054 for short covering and bullish momentum into the weekend.
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If 23,900 breaks decisively, it could trigger a deeper pullback.
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Carry positions with hedge given the geopolitical and astro cycle risk.
Nifty Holds Gann Support at 23,900 – Mercury Ingress & Full Moon Signal Potential Reversal
Nifty took precise support at the 23,900–23,935 zone, which aligns with a critical Gann angle. Additionally, May 11 marks a powerful confluence of time cycles:
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Gann Date (11th)
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Mercury Sign Change (Ingress)
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Full Moon Event
This combination of price and time suggests a potential trend reversal or accelerated move—especially following the India-Pakistan ceasefire announcement, which could ease geopolitical stress and reduce volatility.
Key Technical Zones:
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Support:
23,900–23,935 (Gann angle + previous bounce zone)
Break below 23,900 → Fresh shorts may get active for 23,750–23,666 downside. -
Upside Trigger:
Above 24,166 → Fast retracement possible toward 24,323–24,444.
Intraday Strategy:
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Watch the first 15-minute high and low — they’ll likely define the directional bias for the day.
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Gap-up open + breach of 24,166 may result in short covering and index leadership by banks and heavyweights.
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Carry hedged positions through the weekend, especially with planetary reversals in play.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24167 for a move towards 24478/24792 Bears will get active below 23857 for a move towards 23549/23243.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:23,11:19,12:31,01:29,02:47 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.26 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1.5 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was liquidation of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 11:39 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @24321 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :24211 closed above it
Nifty has closed Above its 200 SMA @ 24044 Trend is Buy on Dips till above 24100
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24050 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.73.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24200 strike, followed by 24300 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24000 strike, followed by 23800 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 23900-24300 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 3798 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 7277 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23037-23722-24408-25134 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Trading is not about being right—it’s about managing risk. Doubling down is the arrogance of certainty meeting the brutality of randomness. The market doesn’t care about your conviction; it only respects survival.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24386. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24092, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 24166 Tgt 24199, 24244 and 24299 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 24120 Tgt 24084, 24050 and 24008 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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