FIIs Add Fresh Shorts in Bank Nifty Futures – May 09, 2024
On May 09, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to reflect a bearish outlook in the Bank Nifty Index Futures segment by shorting 2486 contracts worth ₹401 crore. This move was accompanied by a net open interest (OI) decrease of 1,136 contracts, clearly indicating short positions were covered in Friday’s gap down
FII Activity Snapshot (May 9):
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Contracts Shorted: 2486
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Notional Value: ₹401 crore
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Net OI Change: –1136 contracts
Interpretation:
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The decrease in OI confirms that FIIs are covering shorts, possibly due to:
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India-Pakistan Ceasefire
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Influence from active astro triggers (Mercury and Moon)
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Trading Consistency & Discipline: Key to Long-Term Success
Bank Nifty is expected to open gap down in today’s session due to escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. This scenario was cautioned in our previous video, particularly if key Gann levels were breached — and now the index is poised to open around the 53,400–53,500 support zone.
Pre-Market Levels & Strategy:
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Support Zone: 53,400–53,500
→ Bears may look to book profits in this region.
→ Bulls will aim to defend and build support near this zone. -
Resistance Zone for Weekly Close: 53,755–53,800
→ A close above this range would suggest bullish resilience heading into the new week.
Bank Nifty Forms Gravestone Doji at Support – Gap-Up Likely as VIX Cools
Bank Nifty found strong support at the 53,500 zone, forming a textbook Gravestone Doji candle—a classic sign of potential reversal, especially after a recent decline. As noted in our previous analysis, the Mars sign change and Full Moon cycle often mark major trend inflection points.
Macro + Sentiment Shift:
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Overnight ceasefire developments and no major escalation on the India-Pakistan front suggest a cooling of tensions.
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Expect a gap-up opening, accompanied by a likely decline in India VIX.
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All out-of-the-money (OTM) options are expected to see premium erosion due to volatility crush.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
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Support Held: 53,500
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Bullish Confirmation: Close above 54,008
→ Will validate the Doji reversal and can trigger further short covering.
Intraday Trading Strategy:
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Use the first 15-minute high and low to determine intraday trend direction.
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A break above the initial high with volume confirmation could signal trend continuation toward 54,500–54,800.
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If price fails to hold above 53,800, expect intraday profit booking.
Final Thought:
The market appears poised for a relief rally driven by macro sentiment, astro alignment, and technical support. However, follow-through price action post-gap-up will be critical to confirm trend strength.
Bank Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 54014 for a move towards 54480/54948. Bears will get active below 53550 for a move towards 53088/52628.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:23,11:19,12:31,01:29,02:47 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Bank Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 18 lakh, with liquidation of 1 lakh contracts. Additionally, the Increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a closure of SHORT positions today.
Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 05:07 and Bank Nifty Rollover Cost is @55480 closed above it.
Bank Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :54467 closed above it.
Bank Nifty closed below its 20 SMA @54025 ,Trend is Buy on Dips once above 54025
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 53548-55141-56734. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 54000 strike, followed by the 54500 strike. On the put side, the 53500 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 53000 strike.This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 54500-55500 range.
The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 54000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.73 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .
Trading is not about being right—it’s about managing risk. Doubling down is the arrogance of certainty meeting the brutality of randomness. The market doesn’t care about your conviction; it only respects survival.
For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 54976 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 53822, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
BANK Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 54000 Tgt 54125 , 54300 and 54444 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 53800 Tgt 53666, 53444 and 53222 (BANK Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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