FIIs Maintain Bullish Stance in Nifty Futures – April 30, 2024
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their bullish positioning in the Nifty Index Futures segment, with net buying of 6,893 contracts worth ₹1,263 crore. This move was supported by a net open interest (OI) increase of 4,071 contracts, indicating fresh long buildup alongside short covering.
FII Activity Breakdown:
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✔ Longs Added: 5,518 contracts
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✔ Shorts Covered: 2,379 contracts
FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.88
Positioning: 47% Long : 53% Short
✅ Interpretation:
FIIs are clearly tilting bullish, with increasing long exposure and reducing short positions. The rise in OI confirms fresh participation on the long side, not just position unwinding.
Client Activity Overview:
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✔ Longs Covered: 2,958 contracts
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✔ Shorts Added: 3,174 contracts
Client Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.79
Positioning: 44% Long : 56% Short
✅ Interpretation:
Clients appear cautious, reducing long exposure while increasing shorts — possibly hedging existing positions or anticipating a consolidation at higher levels.
Market Outlook:
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With the monthly close completed and May series underway, the FII positioning suggests confidence in upside continuation — especially if key resistance at 24,389 is decisively breached.
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Clients’ defensive stance may reflect concern over event risks or overbought short-term conditio
Trading Consistency & Discipline: Key to Long-Term Success
Key Technical Outlook:
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Resistance:
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24,389 → Multiple rejections from this Gann resistance zone. A close above is needed for a breakout toward 24,505–24,656.
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Support:
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24,108 → Bears need a close below this level to regain short-term control.
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Doji Formation:
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Indicates a possible turning point. Watch for follow-through price action in the next session.
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Nifty formed another Doji candle on the daily chart, signaling continued indecision and exhaustion near the 24,389 Gann resistance level. Despite strong intraday moves, bulls have consistently failed to secure a close above this key level, making it a crucial battleground.
Key Technical Insight:
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Gann Level Resistance: 24,389 remains a major hurdle.
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Doji Candle Formation (Again): Back-to-back Dojis indicate market hesitation and potential trend shift once the stalemate breaks.
Astro + Bayer Rules in Play:
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Bayer Rule 14:
“Venus movements in geocentric longitude using a unit of 1°9’13” often coincide with sharp market reversals.” -
Bayer Rule 2:
“A downward trend begins within 3 days when the speed difference between Mars and Mercury is 59 minutes. This typically leads to a big move.”
These astro events, especially when paired with Doji formations and key Gann levels, create a high-probability setup for a directional breakout or breakdown.
Why the Next Two Sessions Are Critical:
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Weekly Close + Monthly Open → Adds weight to price action and sets the tone for the first half of May.
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Astro-Gann Time Confluence → Suggests the likelihood of a decisive move (up or down).
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Watch for Range Break:
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Bullish above: 24,389
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Bearish below: 24,108
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A breakout beyond either boundary could trigger a 300–400 point directional swing.
Trading Strategy:
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Avoid pre-emptive trades → Let the market break out of the current range.
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Use the first 15-minute high/low on Friday to gauge intraday momentum.
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Be open to both directions, especially with Venus and Mars-Mercury aspects pointing to volatility and sharp movement.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24167 for a move towards 24478/24792 Bears will get active below 23857 for a move towards 23549/23243 — Waiting for 24478/24792
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:13,11:01,12:00,01:02,02:22 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.33 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 2.7 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 24:26 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @24321 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23521 closed above it
Nifty has closed Above its 200 SMA @ 24051 Trend is Buy on Dips till above 24200
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24350 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1.04.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24400 strike, followed by 24500 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24200 strike, followed by 24100 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24200-24500 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 50 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 1792 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23037-23722-24408-25134 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Trading is not about being right—it’s about managing risk. Doubling down is the arrogance of certainty meeting the brutality of randomness. The market doesn’t care about your conviction; it only respects survival.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24371. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24424 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 24343 Tgt 24385, 24424 and 24484 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 24295 Tgt 24256, 24212 and 24166 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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