FIIs Maintain Bullish Stance in Nifty Futures – April 29, 2024
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to reflect a bullish outlook in the Nifty Index Futures segment, buying 6165 contracts worth ₹1130 crore. The move was backed by a net open interest (OI) increase of 7549 contracts, signaling fresh long positions being built into the May series.
FII Activity Breakdown:
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✔ Added Longs: 6685 contracts
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✔ Added Shorts: 1806 contracts
FII Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.79
Positioning: 44% Long : 56% Short
✅ Interpretation:
FIIs are aggressively adding long positions and reducing shorts, indicating growing confidence in further upside for the index. The rise in OI alongside long additions reflects fresh bullish conviction rather than mere short covering.
Client Activity Overview:
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✔ Added Longs: 2291 contracts
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✔ Covered Shorts: 977 contracts
Client Long-to-Short Ratio: 0.83
Positioning: 45% Long : 55% Short
✅ Interpretation:
Clients have increased exposure on both sides but with higher short additions, suggesting hedging activity and a more cautious stance going into the monthly close.
Trading Consistency & Discipline: Key to Long-Term Success
Nifty staged a strong comeback, erasing Friday’s fall, as the New Moon — a classic astro signal — triggered fresh bullish momentum. Price found support at the 1×2 Gann angle, a key technical level, and moved sharply higher, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend.
Key Highlights:
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Technical Structure:
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Nifty has formed an Inside Bar, indicating a potential breakout setup for tomorrow.
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The rally was led by Banking stocks and Reliance Industries, a powerful combination.
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Sentiment Insight:
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As the old saying in Dalal Street goes:
“When Reliance moves, never short the market.” -
Reliance leading the rally adds credibility to the bullish momentum.
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Liquidity Boost:
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RBI’s ₹1.25 lakh crore OMO liquidity injection announcement is a major positive, ensuring ample liquidity to support equities moving into May.
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Key Levels to Watch:
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✅ Bullish Trigger:
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Above 24,389 → A breakout above this can lead to a quick move toward 24,505–24,656.
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⚠️ Resistance Behavior:
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Price has been knocking repeatedly at resistance, making it weaker over time — typically a bullish sign if follow-through happens.
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Support Zone:
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Immediate support remains around 24,200–24,240 based on Gann structure.
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Astro Alert: Venus Ingress Tomorrow
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Venus Ingress — movement into a new zodiac sign — is expected tomorrow.
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Historically, Venus Ingress events often enhance market volatility and can fuel breakout moves, especially when aligned with technical setups like Inside Bars.
Strategic Outlook:
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Bulls have the momentum — look for a breakout above 24,389 for confirmation.
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Avoid aggressive shorts unless key supports break decisively.
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Intraday traders should closely monitor the first 15-minute high/low for trend confirmation.
Nifty formed a Doji candle on the charts, signaling indecision as it once again failed to close above the critical 24,389 Gann level. This key level has now acted as a barrier for multiple sessions, keeping both bulls and bears on edge.
Key Technical Outlook:
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Resistance:
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24,389 → Multiple rejections from this Gann resistance zone. A close above is needed for a breakout toward 24,505–24,656.
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Support:
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24,108 → Bears need a close below this level to regain short-term control.
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Doji Formation:
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Indicates a possible turning point. Watch for follow-through price action in the next session.
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Astro + Calendar Alignment:
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Venus Ingress in Aries
→ A significant event known for triggering sharp trend moves, especially in financials and momentum stocks. -
Akshay Tritiya (Tirtha):
→ Considered auspicious for new beginnings in Indian markets. Volumes can be erratic due to the holiday impact. -
Monthly Close Today:
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Bulls will aim to reclaim and close above 24,389.
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Bears will push for a close below 24,108 to tilt sentiment bearish into May.
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⚠️ Geopolitical Update – Risk Alert
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The Prime Minister has given the military “full operational freedom” to respond to the J&K terror attack.
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Any escalation or response could trigger a knee-jerk sell-off, especially with a trading holiday tomorrow.
️ Strategy Tip:
Buy protective puts if carrying overnight long positions into the break — better to stay hedged than exposed.
Final Thoughts:
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Volatility is likely to spike post-holiday.
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Watch for a decisive breakout/breakdown beyond 24,389 or 24,108 for directional clarity.
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Stay nimble and avoid aggressive leveraged trades into an event-heavy long weekend.
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 24167 for a move towards 24478/24792 Bears will get active below 23857 for a move towards 23549/23243 — Waiting for 24478/24792
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:58,10:58,12:00,12:57,01:28,03:04 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.30 lakh cr , witnessing addition of 4.4 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 18:31 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @24321 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23521 closed above it
Nifty has closed Above its 200 SMA @ 24051 Trend is Buy on Dips till above 24200
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24300 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.84.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24400 strike, followed by 24500 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24200 strike, followed by 24100 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24200-24500 levels.
Options Market Activity Overview – April 26, 2024
♂️ Retail Investor Activity
Call Options:
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Added: 616 K contracts
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Shorted: 500 K contracts
Put Options:
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Added: 117K contracts
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Shorted: 119 K contracts
✅ Interpretation:
Retail traders are showing a heavier build-up on the Put side, suggesting hedging activity or preparation for volatility and potential downside protection.
The net shorting of Calls also indicates caution at higher levels, expecting possible consolidation or minor corrections.
FII Options Activity
Call Options:
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Added: 152 K contracts
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Shorted: 214 K contracts
Put Options:
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Added: 3.6 K contracts
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Shorted: 12.7 K contracts
✅ Interpretation:
FIIs maintained a neutral to slightly bullish bias:
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Light addition in Calls and higher Put activity reflects a hedged stance.
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More shorting of Puts than adding shows optimism — FIIs expecting downside protection may not be heavily needed, or anticipating consolidation rather than sharp drops.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 2385 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 1369 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23037-23722-24408-25134 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
Trading is not about being right—it’s about managing risk. Doubling down is the arrogance of certainty meeting the brutality of randomness. The market doesn’t care about your conviction; it only respects survival.
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24358 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24465 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Expiry Range
Upper End of Expiry : 24556
Lower End of Expiry : 24114
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 24360 Tgt 24400, 24432 and 24374 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 24323 Tgt 24290, 24225 and 24196 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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