FII Activity: Bullish Sentiment in Nifty Index Futures with Cautious Positioning
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bullish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively buying 2,286 contracts worth ₹394 crore. However, this activity resulted in a decrease of 730 contracts in net open interest, indicating position unwinding rather than aggressive fresh long additions.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs added 1,221 long contracts, slightly increasing their bullish exposure.
- FIIs covered 2,418 short contracts, reducing their bearish bets.
Client Behavior
- Clients covered 290 long contracts, suggesting profit booking or reduced bullish conviction.
- Clients added 1,570 short contracts, indicating a cautious approach toward potential downside risks.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 16% long and 84% short positions → Still maintaining an overall bearish bias, despite covering some shorts.
- Clients: Holding 70% long and 30% short positions → Continuing to maintain an optimistic outlook.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
FIIs reducing short positions signals a shift in sentiment, but their overall bias remains bearish. Clients adding shorts suggests they are preparing for possible downside risk. A sustained move above key resistance levels could force further short-covering by FIIs, fueling a sharp rally.
Final Thoughts: FIIs are reducing shorts but not aggressively adding longs, indicating a cautious bullish approach rather than a full-fledged reversal.
Nifty formed another Doji at the Gann angle support zone, signaling indecision and a potential trend reversal. The index closed above 23000 making this a critical support level for the coming sessions.
Key Factors Supporting a Reversal
Technical Signal: A Doji at key support is often a precursor to a trend change. Astro Influence: Mercury Sign Change & Weekly Close Tomorrow – Bulls would aim for a close above 23135 to strengthen the upside momentum.
Key Levels to Watch
Support: 23000→ Holding this level can drive further upside. Upside Targets:
- 23135 (Lunar Date Resistance)
- 23323 (Next Octave Level & Key Gann Resistance)
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
If Nifty sustains above 23135 , bulls could regain control, targeting 23323+. A breakout above 23323 could accelerate gains towards 23500. If price breaks below 22920, expect further downside pressure.
Final Thoughts: With technical, astro, and fundamental factors aligning, Nifty is at a key turning point. Tomorrow’s close will be crucial in determining the trend direction!
Nifty opened with a gap down but found strong rejection at 22,774—the Mercury Ingress low, triggering a sharp recovery. This price action aligns with two significant astro events:
- Mercury Ingress – Known to cause reversals in market trends.
- Moon Declination – Often brings volatility and potential turning points.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Scenario:
- Above 23,000 → Bulls need a close above this level tomorrow to confirm a short-term bottom.
- Upside Targets:
- 23,135 – Lunar Resistance (first major hurdle).
- 23,300 – Octave Point (a key Gann level where strong reactions occur).
Bearish Scenario:
- Failure to close above 23,000 may invalidate the reversal attempt, keeping further downside open.
Gann Rule in Play – 9:5 Ratio Signal
According to Gann’s 9:5 Rule:
“If a price falls for 9 consecutive days, there is a high probability of a 5-day rally.”
- If today’s low holds and Nifty closes above 23,000, this rule could trigger a multi-day recovery.
- A strong reversal pattern suggests a potential short-covering rally in the coming days.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
Bullish Bias: Focus on NBFC and rate-sensitive stocks, which may outperform due to Mercury Ingress effects. Watch 23,000 closely – This is the line in the sand for bulls. Intraday Play: If Nifty crosses 23,135, expect acceleration toward 23,300. Risk Management: Below 22,774, bears regain control, leading to further downside.
Final Thoughts:
With astro cycles and Gann’s time rules aligning, the market is at a critical inflection point. Tomorrow’s close will decide whether reversal momentum builds toward higher targets.
Watch the video below for deeper insights:
Watch the video below for a detailed analysis
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23026 for a move towards 23102/23177/23253. Bears will get active below 22876 for a move towards 22800/22725.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 10:14,11:37,12:48,01:56,02:39 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.71 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 1.9 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 35:15 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23529 closed below it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 23251 Trend has changed to Buy On Dips till above 22900
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Retail & FII Activity in the Options Market – Key Insights & Market Outlook
Analyzing retail and FII positioning in the options market provides valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price action. Here’s a breakdown of today’s activity:
Retail Activity in Options Market
Retail traders showed a bearish tilt, with aggressive put activity and more call shorting than buying.
Call Options:
- Added 50.8K contracts, suggesting some bullish bets.
- Shorted 110K contracts, indicating expectations of strong resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 388K contracts, signaling significant downside hedging.
- Shorted 329K contracts, suggesting confidence that key support levels will hold.
Retail Takeaway:
Retail traders are positioning for volatility, with heavy put buying but also put shorting, indicating they are hedging downside risk but not fully committed to a crash.
FII Activity in Options Market
FIIs displayed a neutral stance, with relatively balanced call and put activity.
Call Options:
- Added 7.5K contracts, showing minimal bullish intent.
- Shorted 12.3K contracts, reinforcing resistance at higher levels.
Put Options:
- Added 8.8K contracts, hedging against downside risks.
- Shorted 11.3K contracts, reducing their bearish exposure.
FII Takeaway:
FIIs are not aggressively betting in either direction, but their call shorting suggests they expect resistance at higher levels.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
Retail traders are hedging against downside risk but are not fully bearish. FIIs remain cautious, slightly leaning towards range-bound action. Call shorting by both FIIs & retailers indicates strong overhead resistance. Heavy put shorting suggests confidence in support levels holding.
Final Thoughts: The market appears to be trading within a defined range, with both upside and downside hedging in place.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23100 strike, followed by 23300 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22900 strike, followed by 22800 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22900-23300 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 3937 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 4759 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable. Price took support near 22751
When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23401. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22944, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Nifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23000 Tgt 23044, 23088 and 23135 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 22920 Tgt 22886, 22848 and 22808 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
► Join Youtube channel : Click here
► Check out Gann Course Details: W.D. Gann Trading Strategies
► Check out Financial Astrology Course Details: Trading Using Financial Astrology
► Check out Gann Astro Indicators Details: Gann Astro Indicators