FII Activity: Cautious Bullishness in Nifty Index Futures
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained a bullish stance in the Nifty Index Futures market, actively buying 1,498 contracts worth ₹260 crore. This activity resulted in an increase of 808 contracts in net open interest, suggesting fresh long positions being built.
Breaking Down FII Activity
- FIIs added 2,226 long contracts, slightly increasing their bullish exposure.
- FIIs covered 1,006 short contracts, reducing their bearish bets.
Client Behavior
- Clients covered 2,777 long contracts, indicating profit booking or reducing bullish bets.
- Clients added 1,557 short contracts, showing a cautious approach toward further downside risks.
Current Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs: Holding 16% long and 84% short positions → Still maintaining a strong bearish bias despite adding longs.
- Clients: Holding 70% long and 30% short positions → Remaining optimistic on the market outlook.
Market Outlook & Key Takeaways
✔ FIIs are cautiously adding longs, but their overall short exposure remains high, meaning they are not fully convinced about an uptrend yet.
✔ Clients reducing long exposure and adding shorts suggests profit-taking and defensive positioning.
✔ A sustained move above key resistance levels could force FIIs into short covering, triggering a stronger rally.
✔ If selling pressure builds, FIIs may continue to add shorts, weighing on market sentiment.
Nifty formed a perfect Doji at the Gann angle support zone, aligning with multiple lunar dates, as discussed in the video below. This signals potential indecision in the market, setting the stage for a major move.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Scenario:
- A move above 23,135 will confirm a double bottom & trend reversal.
- If sustained, expect an upside move towards 23,251/23,326.
Bearish Scenario:
- Bears will regain control below 22,949, potentially leading to further downside.
Expiry Day Impact – Expect High Volatility
With Weekly expiry tomorrow, traders should be prepared for sharp swings, as positions get adjusted.
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
✔ Watch for confirmation above 23,135 for a bullish breakout.
✔ If 22,949 breaks, expect another round of selling pressure.
✔ Stay cautious, as expiry-driven volatility could create sudden reversals.
Nifty formed another Doji at the Gann angle support zone, signaling indecision and a potential trend reversal. The index closed above 23000 making this a critical support level for the coming sessions.
Key Factors Supporting a Reversal
✔ Technical Signal: A Doji at key support is often a precursor to a trend change.
✔ Astro Influence: Mercury Sign Change & Weekly Close Tomorrow – Bulls would aim for a close above 23135 to strengthen the upside momentum.
Key Levels to Watch
✔ Support: 23000→ Holding this level can drive further upside.
✔ Upside Targets:
- 23135 (Lunar Date Resistance)
- 23323 (Next Octave Level & Key Gann Resistance)
Market Outlook & Trading Strategy
✔ If Nifty sustains above 23135 , bulls could regain control, targeting 23323+.
✔ A breakout above 23323 could accelerate gains towards 23500.
✔ If price breaks below 22920, expect further downside pressure.
Final Thoughts: With technical, astro, and fundamental factors aligning, Nifty is at a key turning point. Tomorrow’s close will be crucial in determining the trend direction!
Watch the video below for a detailed analysis
Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 23135 for a move towards 23237/23313. Bears will get active below 23007 for a move towards 22931/22854/22778.
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:15,10:16,01:03,01:48,02:11 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty December Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.72 lakh cr , witnessing liquidation of 2.9 Lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was addition of SHORT positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 25:25 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @23879 closed below it.
Nifty Gann Monthly Trade level :23529 closed below it.
Nifty has closed below its 20 SMA @ 23298 Trend has changed to Buy On Dips till above 22900
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 23000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85.Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 23100 strike, followed by 23300 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22900 strike, followed by 22800 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22900-23300 levels.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 2789 Cr , while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2934 cr.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22751-23408-24105-24801 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.__ Price took support near 22751
When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” – Mark Douglas
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 23473 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 23188 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
ifty Intraday Trading Levels
Buy Above 23075 Tgt 23108, 23144 and 23196 ( Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell Below 23020 Tgt 22975, 22920 and 22860 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.
As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.
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