Impact of US Fed Decisions on Nifty: Weekly Expiry Insights for 01 Aug 2024

By | August 1, 2024 7:07 am

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Neutral approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by Buying 9660 contracts worth ₹603 crores, resulting in a increase of 8704 contracts in the net open interest. FIIs covered 5086 long contracts and added 8211 short contracts, indicating a preference for covering long positions and adding short positions. With a net FII long-short ratio of  1.3, FIIs utilized the market rise to exit long positions and add short positions in Nifty futures. Clients added 6404 long contracts and added 20755 short contracts.

As Discuused in Last Analysis

The Moon-Mars conjunction had a significant impact, causing a 120-point drop in Nifty within 15 minutes. The price continues to trade below its 1×1 Gann angle, as shown in the chart below, and is also forming an Inside Bar Pattern. Tomorrow, we have the monthly close of Nifty. Nifty is up 3.5% for July and almost 10% in the last two months.

With the Sun trine North Node aspect tomorrow and the involvement of the North Node (Rahu), we can expect another volatile move.

“Bayer Rule 15: Venus heliocentric latitude at extreme and least speeds for major moves” indicates that Nifty will experience a significant impact due to Venus’s involvement. The first 15 minutes’ high and low will guide the trend for the day.

Nifty continues to trade within 1×1 Gann angle resistance zone, as shown in the chart below. The price has yet to break above the 25000 high of the Saturn-Jupiter aspect or below the 24774 low of the Jupiter-Saturn aspect. A break on either side can lead to a move of 176-220 points.

Patience is a crucial skill for traders, and waiting for the right trade setup is essential. Today, being the first day of the month, the market open will be an important level to watch to capture the trend for the day. The price will also react to the dovish Fed commentary from last night. Additionally, the recent 32k tax demand on Infosys might lead to a fall in IT stocks and a rise in bank stocks.

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 25010 for a move towards 25089/25168. Bears will get active below 23853 for a move towards 23723/24645/24567

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:58,11:28,02:14,02:58 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty Aug Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.46 lakh cr , witnessing a addition of 2.7 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a addition of LONG positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 33:17 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @24503 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :24270 close  above  it.

Nifty closed above its 20SMA @24473 Trend is Buy on Dips.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 24900 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 1.02 Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 24900 strike, followed by 25000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24700 strike, followed by 24600 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 24600-25000 levels.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold  3462 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 3366 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 23889-24600-25310 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

Your losing trades do not diminish you as a person. You are not your losing trades. You are also not your winning trades either. They are simply by-products of the business that you’re in.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 24809 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 24986, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Expiry Range

Upper End of Expiry : 25173

Lower End of Expiry : 24826

 

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 25005 Tgt 25055, 25108 and 25173 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 24920 Tgt 27876, 24826 and 24748 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

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