Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bullish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by Buying 11369 contracts worth 1106 crores, resulting in a increase of 11019 contracts in the Net Open Interest. FIIs bought 5169 long contracts and added 564 short contracts , indicating a preference for adding LONG and adding SHORT positions .With a Net FII Long Short ratio of 2.62 FIIs utilized the market rise to enter Long positions and enter short positions in NIFTY Futures.
NIfty move like this are one of its kind which we see once in 2-3 years. Nifty has rallied 16828 -19434 till today which is 2606 points and its not an India Specific rally, Markets through out the world are rallying. Rise like these will get nullified by one big red candel which will take atleast 2-3 days of move. So LOng keep tsl below last day low .
For trend to reverse either we will get a Big Gap down or we will form an Outside bar with price closing below previous day low, TIll this conditions are not met trend continues on long side.
Also IF DIP comes in MOrning hours it will get bought into, Fall will come after 2 PM like today.
Nifty has completed 144 days since the top on December 1st, with the latest high on July 4th reaching 19434. Interestingly, this level aligns with the Gann 360-degree calculation when measured from the low of 2253 in October 2008. This convergence of price and time is known as price-time squaring, which suggests a potential significant turning point in the market.
To capitalize on this situation, it is advisable to consider fresh long positions only if Nifty surpasses the level of 19450. This would indicate further upward momentum and potentially higher prices ahead. On the other hand, fresh short positions can be considered if Nifty falls below 19300, as this could lead to a sharp decline towards the targets of 19108-19040.
It’s important to note that these levels and scenarios are based on technical analysis and historical patterns. However, the market is influenced by various factors, and it’s always prudent to use appropriate risk management strategies and stay adaptable to changing market conditions.
Nifty Trade Plan Based Bulls will get active above 19462 for a move towards 19503/19544/19585. Bears will get active below 19298 for a move towards 19257/19216/19175.
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Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 9:26,10:32,1:52,2:35 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Nifty July Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.03 lakh, witnessing a addition of 0.41 lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a adding of LONG positions today.
Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 30:20 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @18884 and Rollover is at 69.7 %.
Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 19350 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.98 . Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.
If we observe the Nifty chart from June 2022 to July 2023, we notice a recurring pattern of multiple Doji formations. This pattern suggests the possibility of a significant move of 1000-1500 points in the next two months, if history is to repeat itself. It is important to remember that the market tends to follow the path of least resistance. Currently, the path of least resistance appears to be on the upside, especially when an index is making new highs, indicating the potential for further upward movement. However, as traders, it is essential to remain agile, flexible, and open to various possibilities. Market conditions can change quickly, and it is crucial to adapt to new developments and adjust trading strategies accordingly.
Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis
The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 19500 strike, followed by 19600 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 19300 strike, followed by 19200 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 19500-19300 levels.
According To Todays Data, Retailers Have bought 104 K Call Option Contracts And 81.6 K Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. Additionally, They bought 44.2 K Put Option Contracts And 39.4 K Put Option Contracts were Shorted by them, Indicating A BULLISH Bias.
In Contrast, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought 1.6 K Call Option Contracts And 83 K Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. On The Put Side, FIIs sold 30K Put Option Contracts And 19.6 K Put Option Contracts were Shorted by them, Suggesting They Have Turned To NEUTRAL Bias.
In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 2134 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) sold 785 crores.
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 18360-18890-19452 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable. Price has closed above 18890 heading towards 19452 till we are above 18890. High made today was 19434 price is coming near 19452
To create money management, position size calculation or the elaboration of a profitable set of rules. All of these very useful tools are of little help if you are not able to use them in a disciplined manner
For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 19309 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 19451 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.