Weekly F&O Expiry:Nifty Analysis as Fed Tapers

FII sold 4.7 K contract of Index Future worth 415 cores, Net OI has decreased by 829 contract 2.7 K Long contract were covered by FII and 1.9 K Shorts were added by FII. Net FII Long Short ratio at 1.26 so FII used RISE to EXIT longs and ENTER Shorts.

As Discussed in Last Analys Bulls were unable to cross 17374 high made was 17376 but we closed above 17304 As Mars Opposition North Node ie. Rahu it generally leads to trending move. Break of today High and low can see a move of 196 points in Nifty. Bulls need to move above 17374 for a move towards 17440/17506/17573/17639. Bears will have chance below 17299 for a move towards 17243/17177/17112. Nifty broke 17299 and gave multiple trades and did 17243 multiple times during the day in voaltile trading session. Discipline to stick to your stratergy will be rewarded handomsely by market. As Fed event is out now we should see trending move. Plan remains the same for Swing Traders Bulls need to move above 17325 for a move towards 17374/17440/17506. Bears will have chance below 17225 for a move towards 17158/17095/17000.

Intraday time for reversal can be at 9:22/10:40/11:16/12:16/1:36/2:53 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

MAX Pain is at 17300 PCR at 0.78, Nifty Rollover cost @ 17538 closed below it

Nifty Dec Future Open Interest Volume is at 1.19 Cores with addition of 14.8 Lakh with increase in cost of carry suggesting LONG positions were added today.

There is total OI of 8.78 Cores on the Call side and 4.3 Cores on the Put side, So, the activity is more on the CALL side, indicating option writers are in BEARISH zone.

FII have bought significantly more number of options than writing them today. It matches with our estimate yesterday that, a direction is round the corner. Diffrence is almost double between Call Writers and Put Writers indicating market can rally on Upside to take Call Writers by Surprise.

The Option Table data indicates decent support at 17200 and reasonable resistance at 17400. FII’s have bought Options worth 7.5 K cr with OI rising by 111 K contracts suggesting we are in for trending move.

FII’s sold 3407 cores and DII’s bought 1553 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 76.41.

Retailers have bought 245 K CE contracts and 240 K CE contracts were shorted by them on Put Side Retailers bought 3.6 K PE contracts and 90 K PE contracts were shorted by them suggesting having BULLSIH outlook,On Flip Side FII bought 60.9 K CE contracts and 17.4 K CE were shorted by them, On Put side FII’s bought 36.6 K PE and 3.6 K shorted PE were covered by them suggesting they have a turned to BULLISH Bias.

We are living in an insane world – Fed confirm Taper is ON that might stop the printing press – And we might rally on Bad news. So, dont be surprised if markets appear irrational.

For Positional Traders Stay long till we are holding Trend Change Level 17316 and stay short below it. That will help you stay on the side of Institutions and which has a greater risk-reward ratio. For Intraday Traders 17283 will act as a Intraday Trend Change Level.