Nifty Forms Outside Bar,ready for Big move

FII bought 19.1 K contract of Index Future worth 1770 cores, Net OI has increased by 25.7 K contract 22.4 K Long contract were added by FII and 3.3 K Shorts were added by FII. Net FII Long Short ratio at 2.2 so FII used FALL to ENTER longs and ENTER shorts.

As discussed in Last Analysis Break of todays high and low will easily give 175-225 move in Nifty. Bulls need a close above 18450 for a move towards 18531/18586/18629. Bears will get active below 18430 for a move towards 18350/18275. We closed just 47 points down in nifty but intraday volatlity was quiet huge as MARS created havoc and we have formed an outside bar pattern also.For Swing Traders Bulls need to move above 18468 for a rally towards 18536/18604. Bears will get active below 18377 for a move back to 18329/18240/18102

Intraday time for reversal can be at 10:04/11:21/12:32/1:31/2:04/2:42 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

MAX Pain is at 18450 PCR at 1.05 ,PCR below 0.9 and above 1.3 lead to trending moves, and in between leads to range bound markets. So, after all the mayhem, we are probably returning to sanity is what is indicated by the rising PCR.

Nifty Oct Future Open Interest Volume is at 1.2 Cores with liquidation of 1 Lakh with decrease in cost of carry suggesting LONG positions were closed today.

There is total OI of 4.77 Cores on the Call side and 4.28 Cores on the Put side, So, the activity is more on the CALL side, indicating option writers are in neutral zone.

The Option Table data indicates decent support at 18300 and reasonable resistance at 18600.

Nifty has rallied 704 points in last 5 trading sessions and FII has bought just 1549 cr and DII’s jhave sold 5000 cr worth of equities so rally is driven by Retailers and today we had the highest Cash market volumes suggesting time to be cautious as rally is not driven by Instituions. This was a timely caution.

Retailers have bought 419 K CE contracts and 316 K CE contracts were shorted by them on Put Side Retailers bought 32.9 K PE contracts and 98.1 K PE contracts were shorted by them suggesting having BULLISH outlook,On Flip Side FII bought 44.3 K CE contracts and 61.8 K CE were shorted by them, On Put side FII’s bought 29.3 K PE and 5.3 K PE were shorted by them suggesting they have a turned to BEARISH Bias.

For Positional Traders Stay long till we are holding Trend Change Level 17954 and stay short below it. That will help you stay on the side of Institutions and which has a greater risk-reward ratio. For Intraday Traders 18498 will act as a Intraday Trend Change Level.

Buy Above 18442 Tgt 18467, 18491 and 18525 (Nifty Spot Levels)