How to trade Nifty in Expiry Week

Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 5806 Nifty Nifty achieved all Weekly target on upside with a gain of 271 points. September series has been quiet interesting with Nifty gaining 824 points or 10% in just 12 trading sessions. Both Fed and RBI surprised the market leading to volatility in stock market. Next Week is September Expiry which promises to be action packed week with bouts of volatility required for Rollovers in Futures.

Lets analyze how to trade Nifty next week.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts looks like a chart of an illiquid mid cap stock with so many gaps formed . Nifty is respecting its up trending trendline and 50HSMA,Any close below 5932 will lead to a fall till 5816 odd levels.

Nifty Gaps

For Nifty traders who follow gap trading there are 3 trade gaps in the range of 5300-6000 and all other gaps got filled.

5285-5303
5448-5553
5680-5738
5899-5932

Nifty Daily Chart Time Analysis

Nifty Daily chart we have applied the time analysis, Red Lines suggests either swing top and bottom of the Nifty, As seen in below chart Nifty is nearing a short term top and next week will confirm has we already made a top or in process of making one.

Fibonacci technique

Fibo Retracement

As per of Fibo Retracement theory Nifty has broken the resistance at 78.6% retracement with gap up, and is now acting as a classic support .Any close below 5924 nifty can fall back to 5806 odd levels.

Fibonacci fan

Nifty Fibonacci fan are wonderful tool to find the top and bottom in short term.The above chart is self explanatory 🙂

Nifty Weekly Chart

It was bullish week, with the Nifty was up by 161 and gaining 2.8% .We have drawn the Fibo arcs on Weekly chart.Fibo arcs were able to find the support at 5118 as shown in below chart and currently, Nifty is facing difficulty is sustaining above the topmost Fibo Arc. Unable to close above the fibo arc level in coming week will give further indication of short term top in place.

Trading Monthly charts

September has been Mostly Bullish month for Indian market Sep 2010 Nifty rallied 9% Sep 2011 Nifty was down 1.2% Sep 2012 up by 8% and Sep 2013 till date is up 9.9%. So going the past data did give us hint on Nifty move and we were able to capture most part of the rally.