FII Derivative Data Analysis for 23 March trade

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 22-Mar-12.

1. FII  bought 16884  Contracts of NF worth 452 cores OI also decreasing  by 7790 contracts.

2. As Nifty Futures was down by 154  points and OI has decreased by 7790  contracts means  institutions have booked profit  Nifty Future shorts. Now Question arises who have shorted NF then Well it must be retails and HNI.  FII were net buyers today in Futures and Options.

3. Nifty  50SMA@5272, have been breached at last on closing basis which spell troubles for Bulls. Tomorrow will be the real test of this uptrend whether it is able to close above 5272 on weekly basis.

4. Fall today was quiet fast and furious and backed with volumes and breaking both 20 and 50 sma and Swing low of 5233 in single day.The Coal Scam news mother of all Scams of 211 Billion Dollars was the reason backed by Contraction of PMI in China and EU countries lead to the aggressive fall we saw today. Now the news have been denied by CAG and if Global markets are calm we can see a pullback which can be equally sharp as FII did not made fresh shorts in today’s sell off .

5. Nifty March  OI has decreased   by 8.44   lakh .Total OI stands at 2.44 cores  contracts. Shorts are getting covered at lower levels.

6. Roll Over have started with April NF adding 3.6 lakhs in OI basically meaning shorts are getting rollovered from March to April.

7. Equity volumes did pick up today coming to 9207 lakh. Rise on Equity  volumes on a falling day means Strong hands are exiting deliveries and this might spell trouble for Bulls.

8.Total F&O turnover was  1.98  Lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 523888 .VIX shooted up 17% today 24.77

9. In equity FII bought  246 cores did aggressive buying DII sold  133  cores. FII are buying the dip which came in today.

10. 5500 CE is having highest OI of  68  Lakhs with 7 lakh fresh addition. Fresh addition of 11 lakh  was  seen in 5400 CE,5200 CE also added 14 lakh meaning traders are betting 5200  to break tomorrow.Were these smart money or weak hands?

11. 5200 PE having highest OI of 68  lakhs with unwinding  of  10 lakh. Now base of 5200 seems to be in trouble, Looking at velocity and ferocity of fall. Still i accept a bounce back tommrow from 5200 levels.

12. We are having Weekly closing tomorrow,It would be 6 weeks in a row where we have closed down in red. AS shown below Nifty is approaching the demand zone and accept a pullback.

12. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5215, Trend Changer at 5375 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upperhand).

Buy above 5256 Tgt 5274,5295 and 5328

Sell below 5200 Tgt 5160,5125,5080(Nifty Spot Levels)

5080 is very important support level

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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