FII FnO Data Analysis before Jan expiry

By | January 25, 2012 9:13 am
12 Comments

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 24-Jan-11.

1. FII  bought  6911  Contracts in NF worth 184.64  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 33701 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future  was up  by 70  points and OI has increased today, with rise in price so FII have created fresh longs   in Index futures.RBI played a crucial role in yesterday breakout above 5068. Nifty moved above 5068 which was a breakout trade,and closed above 5100.We gave indication 3 days before when we saw Liquidation of 5100 CE which signify BUll power have even strengthen and today we are above 5100. Hope traders are not short in market.

4. NF total Jan OI was at 1.29 cores with 29 Lakh liquidation  in  OI,this whole OI+ some fresh addition in total of 37 lakhs  got rollovered to Feb series.

3. Rollovers provide good visibility of Next series Now look at Feb series rollover of NF. Today Feb Series OI is 1.9 Cores. On 17 Jan it was 48 Lakhs so in 3 trading session an addition of 1.5 Cores.

Now lets do some data analysis

On 17 Jan Nifty closed at 4964 and yesterday NF closes at 5120 so a 1.5 Cores addition is range of 5106 to 4964.

So a close below 4964 will lead to major weakness in Nifty for Feb series. Keep a note of this level

5. FII total OI is Index Futures is 7380001 which is highest from past 3 months and Nifty is rising daily. So do not fight with the trend.

6. In Equity cash segment FII bought 801 cores  whereas DII sold 262 cores.FII have been buying heavily and we can see the effect on rupee it has come to sub 50 levels.

7. As per Options data  5100 CE has  OI of  66  lakhs with addition of  3.67 lakh and we have closes above 5100 levels. Now Bulls have to give Nifty push above 5141 to have a bullish expiry. What the logic

Low of Series:4592

High of Series:5149

Range = 557

Average Traded Price of Series:4859

Looking at above data Bulls are comfortably placed and they need to push nifty above 5175 to get all the SL triggered and panic short covering can come. So keep an eye on 5185 level above which we will touch the 5220 which is 200 SMA of Nifty

Nifty Expiry range comes between 5185(Upper End) and 5070(Lower End)

8. PCR has increase to 1.27 PCR above 1.3 leads to trending moves so still more to go from PCR side.

9. FII SAR level  comes at  5119  and Nifty ATP for Dec series comes at 4860.

 

Buy above 5142  Tgt 5168,5175 and 5220

Sell below 5106 Tgt 5068,5058,5020

All levels mentioned are SPOT levels.

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

 

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12 thoughts on “FII FnO Data Analysis before Jan expiry”

  1. Raman Tondon

    Dear Bramesh,

    I could not understand your comments on 19th and yesterday as well. Yo said liquidation of 5000 and 5100 calls gave you a sense of confirmation of bull trend as bears thought they would not be able to defend even 5100.

    My question is that as per my understanding if the bears were not sure about defending 5100 levels and 5000 level , then they would create hede themselves by creating long positions in 5000 and 5100 calls.

    So my understanding is that bears liquidated the 5000 and 5100 calls longs because they were sure that they did not need the protection of these calls and that the market was bound to fall.

    Could you pleae clarify for my knowledge sake.

    Regards

    Raman Tondon
    Chartered Accountant

    Reply ↓
    1. Bramesh Post author

      Hi Sir,

      Every analyst has a different way of analyzing data. In particular Option data which can be interpreted in different way based on your understanding.

      So it will always be a debatable topic why someone think or analysis in a particular way.

      Bottomline:You should be on right side of trade.

      Rgds,
      Bramesh

      Reply ↓
  2. Dakshit patel

    Respected Brhmesh sir,
    Your derivative analysis is spot on. I have been reading ur analysis for last two months. ur spot on every time. Whether it is short term bottom made or top made. U were spot on when u predicted bottom near 4590 according to option premium in this series. Hats off to u sir.

    Reply ↓
    1. Bramesh Post author

      Kartik you need to use Nifty Spot data i think you have used the futures data. Data to be used 5127.69 and 21.42.

      Rgds,
      Bramesh

      Reply ↓
  5. Sandeep Kumar

    Thanks for such a quick response and nice advice. I had thought huge buying in PE5100 will take Nifty below 5100 and that’s I have taken position in PE5100, after your suggestion I am going to exit PE and will make position in call after Europe update. Once again Thanks a lot.

    Reply ↓
  7. Sandeep Kumar

    Hi, at 11PM data for Nifty P5100, OI – 5999400, Buy – 5883500, Sell – 970900 – what trend its showing.

    Reply ↓

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