Union Budget 2024 : Nifty Trade Plan for Union Budget

By | January 31, 2024 11:25 pm

Analysis of FIIs’ behavior in the Nifty Index Futures market shows a Bearish approach as they displayed a preference for SHORT positions. On a net basis, FIIs went SHORT 2018 contracts worth 220 crores, resulting in an increase of 12400 contracts in the Net Open Interest.

As Discussed in Last Analysis

Nifty did a full U Turn price unable to close above 21750, VIX has touched 16 and next 2 days Volatility will be huge. Bulls need to protect 21430 for rally tommrow, Bears below 21400 can lead to fall towards the last swing low of 21137. Bulls need to move above 21630 for quick move towards 21750/21877. Tommrow we have Moon Declination which leads to voaltile move. We have Monthly close tommrow Bulls will like to close nears 21727 and Bears near 21411.

Tommrow we have important Bayer Rule 9: Big changes on market are when Mercury passes over 19 degrees 36 minutes of Scorpio and Sagittarius,also over 24 degrees 14 minutes of Capricorn. Nifty bounced from gann angle support zone as shown in below chart. Tommrow to capture trend focus on first 15 mins High and low to capture trend. Make sure trade with right positon size as we will have high volatlity. Also try to trade after  Finance Minister  stops speaking and we will see option premium decay after FM completes its speech. Betwenn 1-1:15 we can see change in trend.

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 21750 for a move towards 21815/21888/21961/22034 . Bears will get active below 21668 for a move towards 21595/21522/21448.

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 9:44,11:04,12:33,01:01,2:13 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty Feb Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.12 lakh cr , witnessing a liquidation of 0.07 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a liquidation of LONG positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 46:04  and Nifty Rollover Cost is @21592 closed above it.

Nifty Gann Monthly Trend Change Level : 21749– CLosed below it.

Nifty has closed below its above DMA 21621

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 21600 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.90. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 21800 strike, followed by 22000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 21500 strike, followed by 21300 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 21300-22000 levels.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 1660  crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 1002 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 21146-21775-22404 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

The rules say that we should let our profits run and cut our losses short. Most of us find that we do just the opposite. What happens is that our egos want to show off their brilliance by seeking profits. The ego is like a little child. It wants instant gratification. Taking profits early gives that quick reward.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 21687 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 21751 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.


Nifty Expiry Range

Upper End of Expiry : 21907

Lower End of Expiry : 21542


Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 21750 Tgt 21800, 21850 and 21907 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 21700  Tgt 21650, 21610 and 21542 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

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