Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Starting 02 April

From 01 April 2012 marks the fresh start of  Financial Year 2012-13. Wishing all Readers a profitable Financial year 2012-13.Nifty closed the Last quarter with a gain of 10.38%. Venezuela Stock Market closed with a whopping gain of 70%

I did a study how Nifty trades in the first week of a new Financial Year.Results were quiet fascinating and are summarized as below

Time Period:31-Mar-00 to 31-Mar-11

Max Gain :11.28% 31-mar-2009

Max Loss :1.67%   30-Mar-2001

Average Gain :2.4%

So Out of 11 Years only 1 year was negative rest all ended in positive.So Hoping for a green candle for coming week.Next week will have only 3 trading days with Thursday and Friday being holiday.

 

Nifty Hourly Chart

We have a gap in Hourly chart from 5178-5203. Bulls were able to protect the gap on Friday opening and took nifty for a 100 points gain as soon it moved above 50 Hourly SMA@5221.

 

The most important resistance for coming week will be 5313 which is 200 SMA on Hourly chart. Close above this will be bullish for Nifty.As seen in above chart 200 Hourly SMA proves to be an important resistance in previous rise till 5400.

Nifty Daily Chart

On Daily chart Nifty is forming a falling wedge formation which is extremely bullish. Breakout in Falling wedge comes around 5385 level. So range of 5360-85 needs to be watched quiet closely for next week.

 

We have been discussing about the possibility of reversal from 200 DMA and trendline support from the past week. Bulls were able to protect 200 DMA on closing basis and bounced from trendline support of 5130 Low nifty made was 5135.

On Daliy chart Nifty closed above 20 SMA@5293 and next formidable resistance comes at 50SMA@5313. So move above 5313 we are in for a rise till 5360-85 range. Close above 50 SMA @5313 will turn the medium term trend from bearish to bullish.

 

 

Nifty Fibonacci

Fibonacci Ratio from 5500-5135 comes at 50% 5318 and 61.8% 5361.

Move above 5445 (Budget High) will give a confirmation to end of  downward present down move from 5630.

Nifty Weekly Chart

After 6 Weeks on Downtrend Nifty was able to close in positive with

 

Nifty formed a Hammer Formation on Weekly charts which is bullish signal

Hammer formation formation and Implication

• After an established downtrend
• Hammer candles have a small real body that forms at the upper end of the         days trading range
• Lower wick at least twice as long as the real body
• No (or almost no) upper wick

The Hammer pattern signifies a weakening in bearish sentiment. The long lower wick signifies an initial continuation of the downtrend. However, renewed buying sentiment acts as support and drives the price higher to close near its opening price. The strength of a Hammer formation depends on where it appears. If a hammer forms near support levels, then the likelihood of a strong bullish reversal is high.

Flag and Pole pattern is still active on Weekly charts with Weekly charts closing above 20 SMA. Also

Nifty Monthly Chart

 

 

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:5320

Nifty Resistance:5360,5400,5445,5463 and 5500

Nifty Support :5268,5241,5201 and 5185

 

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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