Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 6-Feb-12.
1. FII bought 11567 Contracts of NF worth 318.57 cores OI also increased by 58673 contracts.
2. OI has increased by 58673 Contracts the highest in Feb series which means FII are still towards to long side of trade. Still no signs of shorting the index
3. Average traded price from FII data comes at 5508 which is way higher than today’s traded price of 5372, which means institution have done lot of day trading.Nifty was quiet volatile and gave good trades for intraday players.
4. Nifty trend is strong which can be understood how the Dips which came near our FII SAR of 5330 is bought into quickly. Every dip is getting bought into and bearish voices have faded away.
5. Nifty has been rising from past 5 days and 5 Weeks in new year 2012 but VIX also know as fear index is also rising with Nifty. it signify market participants are getting cautious on higher levels and short term top is in sight.
6. “The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.” An Apt Quote of Jesse Livermore for the current context
7. Nifty OI has increased by 17 lakh contract.Total OI stands at 2.42 cores contracts so upside looks capped for time being. We have discussed the possibility of 5434-50 range to be one of potential top as per charts.
8.Total F&O turnover was 1.18 Lakh cores
9. In equity FII bought 997 cores DII sold 183 cores. ECB liquidity floods are finding way to Indian markets.
10. 5400 CE is having highes OI of 54 Lakhs whereas 5200 PE is having the highest OI 72 Lakhs,Below 5220 we will see the first sign of weakness.Trending markets are nightmare for Options Writers as this can be seen from the OI of 5400 CE.
11. Heavy Puts writing was seen in 5200-5300 PE in total of 24 Lakhs.
12. FII SAR has increased to 5333 and VWAP at 5243. Shorts below FII SAR levels
Buy above 5400 Tgt 5422 ,5450 and 5478
Sell below 5327 Tgt 5305,5285,5256
All levels mentioned are SPOT levels.
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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Dear Bramesh,
at the end of this Analysis, you have mentioned “no Shorts below FII SAR Level”
It looks that there exist some typing error, as Below SAR level, shorts are recomennded. In a bullish market or pullback rally it is understood as dip points for buying.
Please correct me if I am wrong and oblige.
Dear Sir,
Thanks for pointing out the mistake. I have corrected the typo error.
Rgds,
Bramesh
good info
thx
bull equity
Bramesh sir
last september 2010 rally started from 5350 level to 6000 level. Same time vix also gone from 16 to 20 level to mid 20s level. At that time shakti ndtv technical analytics also told that market can go up with vix rising, we cant go up vix near 15, sir please your view on that
Dear Sir,
I just talked about a probablity using VIX as a model,As i always say never try to predict top and bottom of market.
Rgds,
Bramesh