FII F&O Data analysis for 23 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 22  Dec.

1. FII bought  13,230  Contracts in NF worth 298  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing  by 1020 contracts.

2. As NF  was  up  by 40  points  with Open Interest decrease by  FII . Fall in OI with Rise  in price means  shorts were covered by FII and they have initiated longs also as OI decrease was meagre 1020 contracts

3. Net Exposure of FII for the December Series is 1403 contracts which i am assuming are longs. As FII goes on Holiday from 24 December there commitments towards market has come down considerably.

3. Banks which led the fall for Nifty were the best performers as Bank Nifty is up by almost 7% in past 3 days. Now after the market moves we get reasons so as i always say

Don’t Worry about news its History

Today Fitch came up with a report saying Indian Economy

The economy is likely to grow by 7.5 per cent in 2012-13 and public finances of various state governments are likely to see consolidation during the next fiscal, ratings agency Fitch said today.

“Fitch expects Indian economic growth to rebound to 7.5 per cent in FY-13 from 7 per cent in FY12 … the Indian economy is expected to perform better than the developed economies,” Fitch Ratings said in its ’2012 Outlook: Indian Subnationals’.

4. Today rise  was on  volumes  less than yesterday total contract traded were 465,875 with Nifty giving Intraday swing of almost 110 points  so as such it was a short covering rally only. Total Turnover was 1.54 Lakh cores.

5. NF total OI was at 1.63 cores with 8.3 lakh reduction means  traders who took short  bet  yesterday and today mornign session on anticiaption of a continuation of decline in market got nervous seeing the sharpness and swiftness of rally in afternoon and have just liquidated there bets.

Nifty OI at 1.63 cores is the lowest OI seen in past 4 series with still 5 trading days before expiry so Nifty Futures can be turned in any direction. We have interesting expiry ahead.

6. In Equity cash segment FII sold 236 cores  whereas DII bought   229 cores.FII in November series have sold equiteis worth 3K cores while DII were buyers worth 2.2 cores and rest 800 cores were bought by Indian retailers.

7. As per Options data  5100 CE has highest OI of 78 lakhs addition of 1 lakh and 4500 PE has highest OI of 78 Lakhs addition of 3 lakhs. So 4500 becomes support and 5100 becomes resistance.

8. 4300 PE  saw a liquidation of   6 lakh in OI today so 6.2 lakhs in OI which was added  in past 2 days where FII were sellers and they ate the whole premium of 4300 PE.

9. Addition in OI was seen in 4500-4800 PE with 4800 PE adding whopping 8 lakhs in OI, So traders are getting confident 4800 will not get breached tomorrow .

10. Interestingly 4800 CE also added 9 lakh in OI, so real fight for 4800 will start tomorrow .4810-4830 has been an important resistance for December series.

10. FII SAR level  comes at 4669,It increased from yesterday SAR of 4619 which gives me confidence FII were buyers today in NF.

11. Average Traded Price for NF is 4838 for December series which becomes the potential resistance for further upmove.

12. Till Nifty do not close above 4756 stick with positional shorts,We will come to know tomorrow the fate of 4756.

13. On Upside above above 4758 Nifty Tgt 4772,4798,4812 and 4831.

14. On dowside below 4707 Nifty Tgt 4689 ,4664 and 4633 (Nifty Spot Level)

 

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

 

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