Nifty Analysis After BJP Lose Karnataka State Election

By | May 13, 2023 4:45 pm

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bearish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by Shorting 7273 contracts worth 663 crores, resulting in a decrease of 3999 contracts in the Net Open Interest. FIIs sold  4455 long contracts and covered 1015 short contracts, indicating a preference for covering exiting  positions .With a Net FII Long Short ratio of 0.85 , FIIs utilized the market fall to exit positions and exit short positions in NIFTY Futures.

As discussed in Last Analysis 

Nifty made an opening high around 18390 and remained range-bound throughout the day. This weekend, we have Mercury’s ingress and Mercury retrograde getting over, along with an important Jupiter-Uranus aspect. Additionally, we will receive the Karnataka election results on the weekend, so we may open with a gap on Monday. If you are carrying an overnight position, it’s advisable to hedge your position. With low volatlity market has become rangebound in intraday but with Mercury and JUpiter astro events we expect volatlity to increase in next week.

The last Karnataka Election Results were declared on May 15, 2015, and the BJP emerged as the winner. However, during that time, Nifty formed a Gravestone DOJI pattern and went through a short-term correction. It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself. As of now, Nifty has completed 108 days from its top on December 1, 2022, and Monday will also mark the end of Mercury Retrograde, as discussed in the video below. The high and low of the first 15 minutes will provide guidance for the day. Nifty has also completed 7 week of rise from Mar 20 Low on Weekly time frame. 7 is important number as per gann studies.



For Any Short term correction to take place Bears needs to Break 18194 as its Gann Monthly trend change level. Bears need to break 18194 for a move towards 18131/18025. Bulls need to move above 18385 for a move towards 18444/18512.




Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 9:15,10:57,12:13,1:53,2:58 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.15  lakh, witnessing a liquidation of 1.6 lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was a closure of SHORT positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 23:27  and Nifty Rollover Cost is @17885 and Rollover is at 58.7 %.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 18300 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.95 . Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

According To Todays Data, Retailers Have bought 946 K Call Option Contracts And 102 K Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. Additionally, They bought 149 K Put Option Contracts And 135 K Put Shorted Option Contracts were added by them, Indicating A NEUTRAL Outlook.

In Contrast, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought 195 K Call Option Contracts And 174 K Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. On The Put Side, FIIs bought 196 K Put Option Contracts And 230 K Put Option Contracts were Shorted by them, Suggesting They Have Turned To A NEUTRAL Bias.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 18300 strike, followed by 18400 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 18100 strike, followed by 18000  strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 18100-18300 levels.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 1014 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) sold 922 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 17744-18272-18800 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.  Price has come near 18272


When in trade mind will always get distracted with news/views but as a Traders we need to remain in now moment to be profitable.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 18213 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 18295, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 18268 Tgt 18299, 18323 and 18366 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 18225 Tgt 18200, 18166 and 18133 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

Category: Nifty50

About Bramesh

Bramesh Bhandari has been actively trading the Indian Stock Markets since over 15+ Years. His primary strategies are his interpretations and applications of Gann And Astro Methodologies developed over the past decade.

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