Bank Nifty Analysis After BJP Lose Karnataka State Election

By | May 13, 2023 5:47 pm

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bullish approach in the Bank Nifty Index Futures market by Buying 3833  contracts worth 418 crores, resulting in a decrease of 1471 contracts in the Net Open Interest.

As discussed in Last Analysis 

Bank Nifty made an high at 43774 breaking the 08 May High of  43739 but failed to closed above 43500. This weekend, we have Mercury’s ingress and Mercury retrograde getting over, along with an important Jupiter-Uranus aspect. Additionally, we will receive the Karnataka election results on the weekend, so we may open with a gap on Monday. If you are carrying an overnight position, it’s advisable to hedge your position. With low volatlity market has become rangebound in intraday but with Mercury and JUpiter astro events we expect volatlity to increase in next week.

The last Karnataka Election Results were declared on May 15, 2015, and the BJP emerged as the winner. However, during that time, Nifty formed a Gravestone DOJI pattern and went through a short-term correction. It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself. As of now, Bank Nifty has completed 101 days from its top on December 14, 2022, and Monday will also mark the end of Mercury Retrograde, as discussed in the video below. The high and low of the first 15 minutes will provide guidance for the day.Bank Nifty has also completed 7 week of rise from Mar 20 Low on Weekly time frame. 7 is important number as per gann studies.




For Any Short term correction to take place Bears needs to Break 43578  Jan 2023 High and head towards 43228 as its Gann Monthly trend change level. Bulls need to move above 44000 for a move towards 44225/44555


Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at :15,10:57,12:13,1:53,2:58 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Bank Nifty May Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 22.4 lakh, liquidation of 7.9 lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was a closure of Long positions today.

Bank Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 10:2 and Bank  Nifty Rollover Cost is @42773 and Rollover is at 75.8%

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 40789-41967-43216 . This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable. Price is has broken 43216

According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 44000 strike, followed by the 44500 strike. On the put side, the 43500 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 43000 strike. This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the 43000-44000 range.

The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 43500 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.97. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .

When in trade mind will always get distracted with news/views but as a Traders we need to remain in now moment to be profitable.

For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 43185 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 43618 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 43700 Tgt 43848, 44000 and 44151 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 43610 Tgt 43458, 43225 and 43000(Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

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