In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be up or down. The thing is to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get-nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction. A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him. Never argue with it or ask it for reasons or explanations. Sock-market postmortems don’t pay dividends.- Jesse Livermore
The above quote from Livermore is apt for current market conditions. We have been trading in a narrow range 5715-5635 from past 4 trading sessions, Volatility has collapsed, so where will the nifty go either it will breakout or breakdown . Let see how FII have positioned themselves.
1. FII bought 7680 Contracts of Index Future,worth 197 cores with net OI increasing by just 438 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 18 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 438,so FII again took some longs in longs of Nifty Future and Bank Nifty.Now if one observe the EOD close of NF from 8 Oct it has been one day negative and other day positive eg. 8 Oct down by 75 9 Oct up by 22 . So as per the trend tomorrow should be a down day again ;). NB: It is just an observation do not blindly trade on this.
3. NS closed at 5660 after making a high of 5684 and low of 5634 . Sideways consolidation with the repeated testing of the support continues in Nifty and there is no display of any strength during pullback rallies. Such pattern could eventually end up with the Nifty breaking below the supports over next few days.Nifty daily chart is forming a Head and Shoulder pattern with Neckline placed at 5635 and if it gets broken with volumes in coming week lower levels are quiet possible.
4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5684 and 5705 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5618 and 5600 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5725 is not broken on closing basis.
5. Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.37 cores with unwinding of 2.88 Lakh in OI,shorts getting unwounded . Here do not we were cautious in NF longs from 5 October the day it hit 2.64 cores saying it shows overconfidence of Bulls
6. Total F&O turnover was at 1.33 lakh Cores with total contract traded at month low of 1.68lakh, PCR at 0.87 and VIX at 15.17.
7. 5800 CE is having highest Open Interest of 1.17 Core with fresh addition of 16.8 lakhs in OI and Premium at Rs 9 (down from 42 4 days ago),5700 CE unwounded 4.2 lakhs in OI after brief rally in fag end of session but still 5700 will be strong resistance for Nifty .5400-6000 CE added 3.9 lakhs in Open Interest.
8. 5500 PE is having highest Open Interest of 85 lakhs with addition of 20 lakhs in OI so such huge addition in 5500 PE suggests Bears are sharpning there claws and we can see a break of 5600 in next 2 days if 5618 gets broken,5600 PE added 1.6 lakhs and OI at 79 lakhs .5400-6000 PE added 22 lakhs in Open Interest.So Bears are having upperhand as of now as not allowing nifty to close above 5700
9.FII bought 35 cores and DII sold 285 cores in cash segment,INR closed at at 52.87 Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).FII bought 36 cores in Stock Futures.
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5637(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5723 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
Buy above 5666 Tgt 5684,5705 and 5725
Sell below 5635 Tgt 5620,5600 and 5585 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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