The much anticipated downward correction materialized during the week gone by.Nifty corrected after 7 weeks of breath taking rally which was surprise for most of market participants.
Nifty is approaching monthly closing in next 3 days which will be keenly watch.
Nifty Hourly Chart
On Hourly chart Nifty was able to fill 2 gaps as shown in above charts still 4 more gaps needs to be filled.
1 Gap :4641-4676
5 Gap:5416-5460 — Filled
6 Gap5521-5545– Filled
Keep watch on above levels as Gap provides an excellent trading opportunities. Hourly charts are approaching a oversold state and a pullback till 50 Hourly moving averages can be materialized.
Everyone is surprised about such a high premium of Nifty March Future of 50-60 points. My 2 Cents
Such High Premium Indicates market is overly bullish 😉 Even though we had a sharp pullback from high of 5630-5406 in matter of 4 days.
Secondly premium should get back to normal 20-30 range next week else even on a whif of bad news market can fall sharply as most of market participants are bullish side.
On Daily basis Nifty was trading in a rising channel (marked in red),It broke this channel on 22 Feb and than started to trade in a new downward channel (marked in Blue).
Till it trades in this blue channel and forms lower lows market downtrend will remain intact but it would be early days to say its an reversal.
As per classic technical analysis a security will always attempt for pull backs for either lower top, equal top then a fall, So basically month ending pressure can take nifty back to 5600 odd or near about levels once.
Another reason why the correction will not last long is the fact Nifty on friday has taken support and closed at 5429. 5320-5428 was the range in which Nifty consolidated for 7 days.
Final breakdown of current downmove comes below 5238 odd levels,below this level Nifty will again go below its 14 months long consolidation pattern. Lot of money is waiting on sidelines to be deployed ECB LITRO funds will find its way to Indian equity markets.
Nifty Fibonacci Chart
As per Fibo levels most important support comes at 5383 which is 23.6% retracement from 4584-5630 of current rise, Below this is 5233 which co incides with our trendline support.
On Weekly charts as suggested last week Nifty will not be able to cross the supply zone of 5650-700 in a single attempt. As such it was a high of 5630 and started its pullback on downside.
Weekly trend is up till it do not close below 5354 which will lead to channel breakdown as per above chart.
Always give more preference to Higher time frame if you are a positional trader.Montly Time frame will be down only below 5401.So if 5382-5401 range is not broken on closing basis for next 2 days expect Nifty to do a pullback to make either lower low or double top formation.
High Volume Bars will act as Support and Resistance. Click on Charts to Enlarge
Nifty Trend Deciding Level:5464
Nifty Resistance:5500,5537,5551,5568,5600 and 5630
Nifty Support:5401,5384,5320,5273 and 5228
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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Don’t take me wrong…………you are amongst the best analyst on the net atleast and yet it seems Market is like a rogue elephant bound by fences made of straw (supports and resistance)…….no analysis is even acknowledged by the markets………….:))
Bramesh sir wht is yr FII SAR for monday??
sir, I am still holding nifty future long from 4870 ( positional as you said in fb page ) when should i book profit ? or uptrend is still there?
Will request you to book profit.
Nifty has strong support at 5380. And close below it will lead nifty to 5220 spot.But it will not break easily. Nifty can go 6000 level only when it closes above 5630 spot level.
thanks sir ji.