Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis: How Will RBI Policy Affect the Market?

By | April 5, 2023 9:44 pm

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) showed a Bullish approach in the Index Futures market by Buying 31346 contracts worth 2789 crores, resulting in an decrease of 18972 contracts in the Net Open Interest. FIIs bought 6187 long contracts and covered 25159 short contracts, indicating a preference for BUYING new positions. With a Net FII Long Short ratio of 0.20 , FIIs used the market rise to enter long and exit short positions in Index Futures

As Discussed in Last Analysis As a trader, it is essential to be well-informed and prepared before the RBI policy announcement. With Nifty being one of the most popular indices for trading, it is crucial to have a sound trading strategy to take advantage of the market volatility.Nifty closed above 4×3 Gann Angle as shown in below chart which is a Bullish sign and now price need to Hold 17326 for bullishnes to continue.

17490 is an important price level to watch before the RBI Policy as it is close to both the 200 DMA and 50% retracement levels of 18134 and 16828. Today, we have Bayer Rule 2 in effect, which suggests that the trend may go down within 3 days when the speed difference between Mars and Mercury is 59 minutes, indicating a potential big move. Furthermore, with a full moon tomorrow, multiple time cycles aligning could result in a significant move in the Nifty.

The market participants closely watch the RBI policy statement and the press conference by the governor for any hints or signals about the future direction of the economy and the banking system. The RBI policy can impact the stock market, the bond market, and the currency market, as it influences the borrowing and lending rates, the money supply, and the exchange rate.The actual impact of the RBI policy on the Nifty weekly expiry may depend on the degree of surprise, the clarity of communication, and the credibility of the RBI’s action. Traders should stay alert and cautious while trading during the Nifty weekly expiry after the RBI policy.

The price has closed above the 50% mark and 200-day moving average, suggesting that Nifty is in ‘buy on dips’ mode until it falls below 17,326. Tomorrow, there is an important Planneatry aspect to consider, as discussed in the above video. Traders should note the first 15 minutes’ high and low to catch the trend for tomorrow’s intraday trading.



Swing traders can expect a potential move towards 17641, 17707, 17773 if the market trades above 17576. However, if the market falls below 17490 , bears may become more active, leading to a move towards 17444,17378,17312

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 9:55,10:55,11:39,1:27,1:55 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty rollover cost is at 17120 and rollover is at 64%

Nifty April Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.08 lakh, witnessing a liquidation of 5.9 lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was a closure of longs positions today.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 17500 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.97 . Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. This suggests that Nifty may trade within a range of 17300-17500 levels in the near term

According To Yesterday Data, Retailers Have Bought 525852 Call Option Contracts And 619217 Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. Additionally, They Bought 1242826 Put Option Contracts And Added 1012203 Shorted Put Option Contracts, Indicating A BEARISH Outlook.

In Contrast, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) Bought 172408 Call Option Contracts And 69514 Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. On The Put Side, FIIs Bought  205559 Put Option Contracts And Shorted 198047 Put Option Contracts, Suggesting They Have Turned To A Neutral Bias.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 17,600 strike, followed by 17,700 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 17500 strike, followed by 17400  strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 17500-17700 levels.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 806 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) sold 947 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 16825-17326-17826. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.

Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable. Low made was 16828 now heading towards 17826 till closing above 17326


After a Trading Loss Whatever the cause, the best solution is just to move on to the next trade with a clear mind and in good spirits.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 17382. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 17577 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 17576 Tgt 17599, 17626 and 17671 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 17533 Tgt 17510, 17470 and 17442 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Upper End of Expiry : 17671

Lower End of Expiry : 17442

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

Category: Daily

About Bramesh

Bramesh Bhandari has been actively trading the Indian Stock Markets since over 15+ Years. His primary strategies are his interpretations and applications of Gann And Astro Methodologies developed over the past decade.

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