As Discussed in Last Analysis Bank Nifty has retraced back to its 50% point at 40769, which falls between 44151 and 37386 as shown in the chart below. Price has reacted multiple times from this point, and Gann has emphasized the importance of the 50% point. This price level, coming before the RBI policy, is crucial as per the time cycle. Today we have “Bayer Rule 2: Trend goes down within 3 days when the speed difference between Mars and Mercury is 59 minutes, which could lead to a big move. Additionally, we have a full moon tomorrow, so multiple time cycles coming together could result in a significant move in Bank Nifty
The market participants closely watch the RBI policy statement and the press conference by the governor for any hints or signals about the future direction of the economy and the banking system. The RBI policy can impact the stock market, the bond market, and the currency market, as it influences the borrowing and lending rates, the money supply, and the exchange rate.The actual impact of the RBI policy on the Nifty weekly expiry may depend on the degree of surprise, the clarity of communication, and the credibility of the RBI’s action. Traders should stay alert and cautious while trading during the Nifty weekly expiry after the RBI policy.
The price has closed above the 50% mark and 1×1 Gann Angle , suggesting that Bank Nifty is in ‘buy on dips’ mode until it falls below 40769. Tomorrow, there is an important Planneatry aspect to consider, as discussed in the above video. Traders should note the first 15 minutes’ high and low to catch the trend for tomorrow’s intraday trading.
Swing traders can expect a potential move towards 41182 , or 41382 if the Bank Nifty trades above 40982 . However, if the Bank Nifty falls below 40781 , Bears may become more active, leading to a move towards 40581,40380,40180
Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 9:55,10:55,11:39,1:27,1:55. How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times
Bank Nifty April Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 27.6 lakh, liquidation of 7.54 lakh contracts. Additionally, the decrease in Cost of Carry implies that there was a closure of longs positions today.
Bank Nifty rollover cost is at 39864 and rollover is at 65.8%
Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Bank Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Bank Nifty may follow a path of 38227-39332-40502-41672. This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Bank Nifty moves through these levels.
Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.
According to the Bank Nifty options chain, the call side has the highest open interest (OI) at the 41300 strike, followed by the 41500 strike. On the put side, the 40800 strike has the highest OI, followed by the 40500 strike. This indicates that market participants anticipate Bank Nifty to stay within the39500-40000 range.
The Bank Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 41000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.97 . Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound. PCR is on extreme end suggesting we can see sharp reversal .
After a Trading Loss Whatever the cause, the best solution is just to move on to the next trade with a clear mind and in good spirits.
For Positional Traders, The Bank Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 40712 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 41099 , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.
Intraday Trading Levels:
Buy above 41112 with targets at 41226, 41381 and 41525 Bank Nifty Spot Levels)
Sell below 40930 with targets at 40844, 40689 and 40575 (Bank Nifty Spot Levels)
Upper End of Expiry : 41266
Lower End of Expiry : 40733
Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.