NIFTY September 21, 2023 – Weekly Expiry Analysis

By | September 21, 2023 9:05 am


Analysis of FIIs’ behavior in the Nifty Index Futures market shows a Bearish approach as they displayed a preference for SHORT positions. On a net basis, FIIs went SHORT 14744  contracts worth 1476 crores, resulting in an decrease of 20266 contracts in the Net Open Interest.

As Discussed in Last Analysis

If a price is rising for 9 consecutive day’s at a stretch, then there is a high probability of a correction for 5 consecutive days. (Ratio is 9:5) #gann Tomorrow 121 trading days from 20 March low and price forming an Inside bar.. Lets see if this gann rule works this time

Nifty has reacted from the Gann angle and astro date as discussed in below video, All thanks to HDFC Bank we have seen a decent cut in Bank nifty. We have 2 important astro date coming tommrow and we will see market reaction to FOMC meeting today  with gap down. Watch out for price action near 45000  it will act as a trend change level till expiry.

Bayer Rule 6: The price is in bottom/top when Mars was in 16 degrees 35 minutes of some sign and plus 30 degrees.

Bayer Rule 27: Big tops and big major bottoms are when Mercury’s speed in Geocentric longitude is 59 minutes or 1 degree 58 minutes.

First 15 mins High and low will guide for the day.

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 19911 for a move towards 19982/20053. Bears will get active below 19836 for a move towards 19769/19698

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 99:15,10:48,11:39,01:36,02:47 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty Sep Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 0.95 lakh cr , witnessing a liquidation of  11.8 lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a liquidation of LONG positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 11:39 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @19445 and Rollover is at 74.1 %.

Nifty has closed above all 20/50 SMA till 19560 is protected Bulls have upper hand.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 19950 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.8. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 19900 strike, followed by 20000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 19800 strike, followed by 19700 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 19800 -20000 levels.Total Call OI is 9.95 cr and Total Put OI is 6.58 cr

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 3110 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 573 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 18890-19452-20014 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.Price has closed below 20014

The mind is mischievous and it often is the primary cause of failures. The market is always creating noises and if a trader fails to control his inner noises, how can he listen to what the market is trying to tell him

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 19855. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 20018, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Expiry Range

Upper End of Expiry : 19959

Lower End of Expiry : 19729 

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 19922 Tgt 19960, 19999 and 20045 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 19836 Tgt 19801, 19771 and 19729 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

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