Nifty 26 July Analysis pre FOMC

By | July 26, 2023 12:33 am

Analysis of FIIs’ behavior in the Nifty Index Futures market shows a Bearish  approach as they displayed a preference for Short positions. On a net basis, FIIs went Short  6888 contracts worth 676 crores, resulting in an increase of 3742  contracts in the Net Open Interest. Additionally, they sold 4882 long contracts and added 6097  short contracts, indicating a strategy of covering long positions and adding short positions.

The FII Long Short Ratio currently stands at 48.5 %, and the FII Long to Short Ratio is at 1.96, indicating that FIIs have substantially reduced their positions in the market and have utilized the market fall to exit long positions and enter short positions in Nifty Futures. This behavior suggests a bearish sentiment among FIIs, potentially influencing the overall market sentiment and trend. Traders and investors should closely monitor these FII activities and adjust their trading strategies accordingly to adapt to the changing market conditions.

As Discussed in Last Analysis

Nifty made a lower low after DOJI on  Frtiday, ICICI Bank/reliance results were unable to move nifty suggesting we are seeing distribution at higher levels and price can head towards 1×2 around 19410 gann angle as shown in below chart.

FOMC Intrerst Rate Decision will come tommrow evening and today we saw a good recovery in Nifty from lower levels, For trending move to come price needs to close below 19658 or above 19782 which are Venus Ingress High and low on closing basis. In Between Sideways Action will continue. FII buying 30K Option Buying suggesting Directional Move can come. 



Nifty Bulls and Bears will fight for 19647 as its 50% of current rally as shown below.  Bulls won 1 round today at 19647 

Price has again close below 19682

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 9:22,12:40,1:02,2:13  How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty July Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 0.67 lakh, witnessing a liquidation of 18.6 lakh contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a covering of LONG positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 25:25  and Nifty Rollover Cost is @18884  and Rollover is at 69.7 %.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 19700 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.89. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 19700 strike, followed by 19800 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 19600 strike, followed by 19500  strikes. Total Calls OI is 4.83 CR  and Total Put OI is 4.33 CR,  This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 19600-19900 levels.

According To Todays Data, Retailers Have sold 409 K Call Option Contracts And 222 K Shorted Call Option Contracts Were covered by them. Additionally, sold 720 K Put Option Contracts And 509  K Shorted Put Option Contracts were covered by them, Indicating A Bullish Outlook.

In Contrast, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought 126 K Call Option Contracts And 109 K Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. On The Put Side, FIIs bought 23 K Put Option Contracts And 109 K Put Option Contracts were Shorted by them, Suggesting They Have Turned To A BEARISH Bias.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 1088  crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) sold  333 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 18890-19452-20014 This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.Price took resistance near 20014 and have seen fall towards 19680

To make One Good Trade you must prepare properly, work hard, and have patience

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 19548 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 19741  , Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 19700 Tgt 19729, 19777 and 19824  (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 19655  Tgt 19621, 19595 and 19560 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

Category: Daily

About Bramesh

Bramesh Bhandari has been actively trading the Indian Stock Markets since over 15+ Years. His primary strategies are his interpretations and applications of Gann And Astro Methodologies developed over the past decade.

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