With the State Election results coming on 8 December and Exit Polls predicting a thumping victory of BJP, and Market reacting with a Big Thumbs up.
So many traders asked me Do exit Polls give us accurate information and can we trust them ? Let me elaborate the whole process.
Here are some of the frequently asked questions about exit polls, along with information about how to find out what exit polls are reporting.
What are exit polls?
Exit polls are surveys conducted as voters leave their polling places on Election Day. Reaching voters at that moment is important, because it overcomes the problems of conducting election polls by telephone or going to there home.
Who conducts exit polls?
Most of Media channel partner some agencies to conduct exit polls, Like Time now – C Voter
How are exit polls conducted?
Interviewers stand outside polling places in randomly selected area. They attempt to interview voters as they leave polling places at specific intervals (every fourth or 10th voter, for example).
Voters who agree to participate in the poll fill out a paper questionnaire and place it in a ballot box.
When a voter refuses to participate, the interviewer notes the sex and approximate age and race of that voter. In this way, the exit poll can be statistically corrected to make sure all voters are fairly represented in the final results.
What sorts of questions are asked in an exit poll?
The typical exit poll questions ask voters whom they just voted for in key races; what opinions they hold about the candidates and key issues; their demographic characteristics.
Are exit polls accurate?
Exit polls, like other surveys, are subject to sampling errors. Therefore, before news organizations report any exit poll results or make projections, they compare results to pre-election polls and past-precinct voting history. Statisticians and political experts carefully review the data. As the actual vote count comes in, the exit poll results are updated to reflect that information.
I have been reading your informative blogs for sometime. Thanks for sharing the knowledge..
My question- since we already saw ~100 pts rally(gap up of +100 pts) on Nifty based on exit polls. What is your view on the impact on market post declaration of results. Can we still a 100-200 pts rally if the results are in line with exit polls or will it be a case of buy on rumour sell on news case…