All eyes will be on US Fed announcement at 10:00 PM IST Will he extend monetary easing of Operation Twist which expires in June 2012. Well situation in US is similar to India, US government is not taking any steps to improve the fiscal situation and reforms which can spur it with lot of political bickering and heavily dependent on Fed to print more money and bring back economy on track. As this is Presidential year in US so fed might be under political compulsion to announce more QE which we will come to know tonight. US stocks has been rising from past 12 days and S&P has moved above 50 SMA also which is bullish. Now if Fed do announce a which markets has priced in already we can see a sell off in tune which we saw on Nifty when RBI disappointed market.Any surprise can further lead to continuation of rally.
Food for thought:When last 2 QE were not able to spur growth will another QE can do ?
1. FII bought 8320 Contracts of NF ,worth 186 cores with net OI increasing by 15226 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 11 points and OI has increased by 15226 contracts means FII have initiated fresh longs in Index futures.
3. Nifty is still Buy on Dip till 5007 is not broken,Its been almost 10 trading days Nifty is stuck in range of 5015-5130 on closing basis so a directional move can soon materialize. Nifty was unable to close .Any move above 5159 will make nifty move to 5200 on the same day and going by current momentum it can happen this week. So 5159 is a level to watch.
4. As 50 DMA@5062 and 200 DMA@5074 and Nifty has closed above this 2 levels 2 days in a row,which is technically bullish and every intraday dip in market is bought into. Also closing above 5100 give more firepower to bulls as short covering can drive the market as expiry is just 5 days away.
5. Nifty June OI is at 1.65 cores with an fresh addition of 1.58 lakhs in OI, fresh longs were added.
6. Total F&O turnover was 1.18 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.3 lakh, Even though we traded in small range of 47 points turnover is above 1 lakh which is a strong sign from Bulls. Also Nifty moved in range give by us 5097-5145 on Facebook page.
7. 5000 CE saw an unwinding of 2 lakhs and 5100 CE of June saw an addition of 0.83 Lakhs seems smart money is buying ITM calls ,5300 CE added 17 lakhs in OI and having the highest OI of 80 lakhs. So do someone know 5200 will be captured tomorrow ?? As such a huge addition in 5300 CE means someone is knowing some internal news or just speculative buying. FII call buying price comes at 5059 means they were active in 5100-5300 CE.
8. On Put side 5000 PE is having highest OI of 87 lakhs making wiht 14 lakhs addition meaning 5000 is current base for market,4800-5200 PE has added 32 lakhs in OI so base building is happening at 5000 PE with strong intrinsic strength by bulls.
9.FII bought 119 cores and DII bought 43 cores in cash segment. INR closed at 56.21 Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/)
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4972, Trend Changer at 5013 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
Buy above 5130 Tgt 5142,5159and 5189
Sell below 5101 Tgt 5080 5064,5042 and 5015 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
Due to some personal commitments I will not be able to present the FII views from next 2-3 weeks. Wishing all Happy Trading
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