FII Derivative Data Analysis for Nifty Future June 2012

By | May 31, 2012 8:38 pm

We had an disastrous GDP data out today,Q4 growing at just 5.3% slowest GDP number in past 10 years but still Nifty made a move of just 15 points made a quick low of 4882 and bounced back,So have market participants already factored in these number or was it due to expiry pressure?

My take it was due to expiry pressure as Cash FII and DII both were sellers and Nifty rise is last 30 min was just due to Futures Rollover as RIL moved to 729 in cash market and Futures made a high of 706, Huge short covering was seen in Small Bank Stock CBI,Dena ,UCO in last 30 mins. So its an expiry game which took place and market will return to their natural form by tomorrow. The worst part of the day was Mr. Pranab Da is still not accepting the mistake of GOI in slowing down Indian growth story but putting the blame on European Crisis and Greece. If you cannot get your house in order how come you blame others for the problem ?

1. FII  sold 49447 Contracts of NF worth 1252 cores,OI decreased by 359636.

2. Bank Nifty OI for all 3 month ie. May,June and July comes at 29 Lakhs which is highest in past 2 years. Such an High OI suggests we are going to see trending move for June series. which way the move will be as of now looks on downside.

3. Nifty today closed below 4942 ie. 20 SMA which is technically bearish,Nifty took support at our Lower end of Expiry level at 4885 made a low of 4882 after GDP data and bounced back,the same was updated on Facebook and hope traders were able to mint some points in such a narrow range of Nifty.

4. Taking an overall view of June series, things looks bearish as today was Monthly close and Nifty closed below 4950 on monthly basis which make it SELL ON RISE on Monthly time frame. Will the June series break the all time low of 4531 ? Will keep a close watch on emerging technical.

5. Nifty June OI is at 1.4 cores of which  85 lakhs rollover have happened with NF range from 4825-5013.So now Keep an eye on these 2 levels 4825 on downside and 5013 on upside,Any break below 4825 will be precursor for a trending move to start and same applies above 5013.

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.98 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 2.8 lakh.3 day in a row we had a grinding move so range expansion will come by tomorrow. Problems are Gap down,once we get a gap down market goes in a trading range of 15-20 points throughout the day and mostly trades in the Initial range we give on facebook Like today range was 4885-4932 and Nifty traded in the range only.

7.  5000 CE of June  has seen an addition  of 8 lakhs total OI now stands at 38 lakhs,Highest in June series. 5000 is the potential resistance as of now

8. On Put side 4500 PE is having highest OI of 57 lakhs making 4500 a strong base. So wide range for June series come at 5000-4500.

9.FII  sold  665 cores and DII sold 266cores in cash segment.Both big fund houses were sellers after the dismal GDP data.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4809, Trend Changer at 4907 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 4946 Tgt 4965,4980,4996 and 5020

Sell below 4917 Tgt 4899,4880 and 4850 (Nifty Spot Levels)


Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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