Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 17-Apr-12.
1. FII bought 20582 Contracts of NF worth 503.41 cores OI also increased by 17768.Surprise Rate cut of 50 BPS is a welcome booster for Bulls. Listless market which was lacking triggers got a boost of liquidity from RBI
2. As Nifty Futures was up by 71 points and OI has increased by 17768, ie.Rise in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh longs were added by FII.
3. Nifty closed above 20SMA@5260 first sign of strength next trigger being and 50 SMA@5339. Above 50 SMA Bulls rule and trend becomes stronger. Looking at FII data seems tomorrow we should move above 5339
4.Trading range is still active 5380-5221. Also as discussed in weekly analysis trend will move down only below 5178 Nifty made a low of 5182 and bounced back almost 100 points.
5. Trendline which we have been discussing from past 1 week resistance comes at 5310. Also we can see a falling wedge formation which is a bullish pattern. All we need a close above 5344 for the pattern to show its true color.
6. Nifty April OI has increased by 7.7 Lakhs .Total OI stands at 1.77 cores contracts.Fresh Longs addition by traders
7. Total F&O turnover was highest in April series 1.67 lakhs Cores with total contract traded at 4.89 lakh .High volume day after long time accompanied by rise which gives more support to bullish stance.
8. 5400 CE added 3.4 lakhs in OI,total OI now stands at 78 Lakhs making it the higher end of April Series.5100-5300 CE saw an unwinding of 2.3lakh in OI which means smart money is betting on Nifty to go higher.
9. On Put side 5200 PE is having highest OI of 74 lakhs with a fresh addition of 10 lakhs.5200 base which looked like will break is again back this time with more conviction . 5000-5100 PE added 11 lakhs in OI Put writing happening at lower levels again a bullish indication.
10.FII bought 441 cores and DII sold 213 cores in cash segment.
11. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5260, Trend Changer at 5284 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).Average Traded price for FII comes at 4891 which is way way below today traded price of 5221 which means FII have carries huge longs and tommrow we might either see a gap up opening or fast upmove after market opens up.
Buy above 5306 Tgt 5322,5344 and 5385
Sell below 5264 Tgt 5249,5230 and 5207(Nifty Spot Levels)
Note:Tomorrow session will be quiet volatile and would request market participants to avoid trading if you cannot handle volatility and trade in less quantity as fast move can take away your stop loss. Money saved in money earned.
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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hello sir.today’s(18/04/2012) FII’s average buy in nifty future comes at 5184.can you please explain how it comes when market did not touched that level
These levels are generated by FII data sheet.It gives an idea where the equalizing level for bulls and bear stands so you need to observe price action near this price.
Dear Mr. Bramesh,
Thanks for such a detailed analysis of Nifty based on FIIs Data. However, while going through the article, It looks some typographic error is there, which creates doubt in understanding the analysis, same are given below :
1. At point no. 6 you have mentioned OI decreased by 7.7 Lakh contracts for Total Nifty Future.As per your Yesterday analysis Total NF contract were 1.7 Crore while today it is 1.77 Crore. So there should be an increase of 7 Lakh Contract today.
2. At point no. 7 Total F&O contracts for today is mentioned as 4.89 Lakh Contract, while NF contracts itself were traded around 1.77 Crore. So 4.89 Lakh contract looks to be an error.
3. At point no. 11 you have mentioned that FII have carried huge longs for tomorrow. Unable to understand the meaning of Huge as you mentioned at point no.1 that FII bought 20582 Contracts of NF worth 50341 Crore.
So this huge is nothing but 20582 contracts.
Dear Sir, Shall appreciate if you please also clarify the interpretation of following conditions of Trend deciding level and trend changer level :
a) If Trend changer level is greater than 100+ points to trend deciding level
b) If trend changer level is greater be 50 to 100 points to trend deciding level.
c) If trend changer level is greater be 20 to 50 points to trend deciding level.
same for reverse too i.e. when trend deciding level is more than trend changer by the amount mentioned in a, b, c.
Also please let me know why Trend deciding level is found always below the Closing Price of NF.
Thanks and regards
1. It was a typo mistake should be read as increase thanks for pointing it out
2. Point 7 data is perfect you can cross confirm with nseindia.com
3. Everyone has its own perception towards data for one person Rs 100 is nothing for another Rs 100 is one days of food bill. Hope you got my point.
Thx again for your lovely analysis.
Keep up the GOOD work, Dear Ramesh
Thanks a lot Sir.