Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 04-Apr-12.
1. FII sold 6365 Contracts of NF worth 168 cores OI also decreased by 12831 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was down by 38 points and OI has decreased by 12831 Contracts ,which basically means profit booking on shorts and also Long liquidation as they net sold 6365 Contracts.
3. Nifty closed above 20SMA@5300 which is good for bulls but unable to close above 50 SMA@5330.
4. I have been talking about the range of 5221-5370 NF based on Rollover data,Nifty highest close for this series comes at 5383 on Tueday which was backed by low volumes and i have cautioned in my last analysis about this. On Wednesday Nifty made a high on 5362 which coincidentally was our Trend Deciding level.Hence till 5383-5400NF is not crossed Bears will have upperhand. As NFP data from US was pretty bad hence we are bound to open below 5300NF tomorrow.As per below Volume chart below 5325 open gate for NF 5365-50 and 5220 NF
5. Nifty April OI has decreased by 10 Lakh .Total OI stands at 1.78 cores contracts.We have just 1.78 cores OI when we have 4 trading days in the series which is lowest in past 4 months. Accept directional move in next week looking at OI data.
6. FII OI for April Series 342620 again on lower side in recent months.This kind of OI we saw in August 2011 where we were range bound for 6 trading days than we saw a good directional move towards the mid and end of series. High of Aug was 5525 and Low was 4870 NF so Will the same Repeat in April 2012. We will keep an eagle’s eye on the development ahead.
7. Total F&O turnover was 69K Cores with total contract traded at 224727.Contracts traded on 04 April were the lowest for the entire 2012.
8. VIX has bounced from the crucial level of 20. As shown in below chart. Accept some good moves in Nifty as per VIX
9. 5600 CE is having highest OI of 45 Lakhs with fresh addition of 3.19 lakhs. 5400 CE is having 38 lakhs in OI and saw an addition7 of 28K contracts and having the second highest OI.
10. 5100 and 5200 PE showed an addition of 3.6 lakhs and 7.4 lakhs in OI.
5200 looks like Firm base for Nifty as of now.
11. 4800 PE saw a surprise addition of 10 lakh in OI with just 5.4 Rs premium. Looking at FII Options Selling Price at 5293 it looks like Smart money has bought 4800PE.
12. For 2 trading session in row both big buys were net buyers. FII were buyers 45 Cores and DII were also buyers worth 126 cores. The main reason why Nifty has not cracked even EU was down 1% on Wednesday.
13. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5323, Trend Changer at 5317 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upperhand).
Buy above 5340 Tgt 5355,5385,5411 and 5445
Sell below 5305 Tgt 5278,5241 and 5203(Nifty Spot Levels)
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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