Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 19-Mar-12.
1. FII sold 12749 Contracts of NF worth 327.18 cores OI also increasing by 36237 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was down by 65 points and OI has increased by 36237 contracts means institutions have shorted Nifty Future.
3.Today we were able to fill the gap from 5292-5220 Low made by Nifty was 5238.As discussed in Weekly analysis Gaps do provide an excellent opportunity to make money and Nifty obliged us.
4. Nifty today bounced at 50SMA@5242, Close below this is first indication of a bearish market from medium term perceptive. For immediate short term we are in bearish trend till we are trading below 20 SMA@5370.
5. The following is an observation which am sharing as we are nearing a crucial level of 5217.
If for a year Nifty breaks the January High for current it remain bullish for whole year and if it breaks below Jan high it remain bearish for whole year.
2004 Jan high = 2014.65 never closed above this level in 2004 means bearish.
2005 Jan high = 2120.15 Closed above on monthly basis in June 2005 @ 2220.60 means bullish.
2006 Jan high = 3005.10 Closed above this level in Feb 2006 means bullish
2007 Jan high = 4167.00 Closed above in may month 2007 means bullish
2008 Jan high = 6357.00 never closed above this level in 2008 means bearish.
2009 Jan high = 3147.00 Closed above in ape 2009 means bullish
2010 Jan high = 5310.85 closed above in June 2010 means bullish made Life high
2011 Jan high = 6200.00 never closed above this level in 2011 means bearish.
2012 Jan high = 5217 Closed for Feb month Now March month is test of 5217
The above is an Observation having good results to decide the trend of the year so will be equally good for investors and traders.
6. Nifty March OI has decreased by 6.67 lakh .Total OI stands at 2.67 cores contracts. Shorts are getting covered at lower levels.
7. Another Interesting aspect today fall was not backed by equity volumes. Only 6713 shares got traded which was quiet less as compared to past 4 days also keeping the fact in mind today nifty corrected almost 70 points today
8.Total F&O turnover was 1.32 Lakh Cores with total contract traded at 361144 .
9. In equity FII bought 160 cores DII sold 296 cores.
10. 5600 CE is having highest OI of 62 Lakhs with 5.5 Lakh unwinding. Fresh addition is seen in 5300 and 5400 CE of 11 and 13 lakh each. When Boat get tilted heavily on 1 side it take 1 jerk to tilt the board the the side. Hope the indication is read by readers.
11. 5200 PE having highest OI of 76 lakhs with fresh addition of 3 lakhs. 5200 seems to be a firm base.Dips near 5200 NF shall be bought into.
12. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5258, Trend Changer at 5386 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upperhand).
Buy above 5278 Tgt 5300,5328 and 5340
Sell below 5238 Tgt 5200,5167,5140(Nifty Spot Levels)
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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our support is with you only in case anybody complain. You are doing good job for retail traderes.
Thanks a lot !!
In that case you logic given at year start that leap years will be bearish will fail if you are saying it will not break Jan high of 5217 .
Market are dynamic in nature and we need to adjust as per the current market trend.
Leap Year Logic was presented on site with a logic from past data. We are still in Q1 still we have 3 more quaters to go. Lot can happen in this globalized world.
The point am trying to make it do not take anything for granted in financial world but its always better to keep such studies back of mind to add more edge to your investing.
For traders such observation does not matter as trading is done on levels never on Observation.
Be open never be slave to a particular thought/observation.
I have sold 5200 PE @40 and 5400 CE @30 march expiry should i hold till expiry (7 days).
good point to focus on yearly high
Your Analysis doesn’t cover that NIFTY Can go below or up and then recover back to justify your Jan and year co-relation. Hope you got the gap in your analysis.
In last 9 years once it broke Jan high it never went below it,You can cross check the data for the same.
today what I am reading on just nifty blog abt camerrila pivot…I had read and got all on your website long back….thanx for yr great work and share of your knoweldge.
Thanks a lot Madam…