Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 10-Jan-11.
1. FII bought 43859 Contracts in NF worth 1054.37 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing by 32891 contracts.
2. As NF was up by 120 points and OI has increased today, with rise in price so FII have created long in Index futures.From past 2 days all dips were bought by FII as pointed in yesterdays post and today it showed it effect. Breakout above 4800 showed its effect.
3. Nifty is forming a contracting triangle on hourly charts both on upside and downside. Resistance are coming down 4775 and support are coming up 4705 which means breakout is soon on cards but when it will be is million dollar question. This is what we wrote yesterday and here we are trading well above 4800.
4. FII has pumped in almost 2300 cores in past 8 trading sessions and we saw the effect on Rupee which has come to 51.60 levels.
5. From past 5 days I have been mentioning close above 20 SMA is bullish and today it showed its effect. Now we have a series of resistance in range of 4877-4881 which is 50 SMA and Fibo resistance so longs taken above 4800 as per Weekly Trend Deciding Level(Click on Link) shall do some profit booking.
6. Today’s session was on goodish volumes 3.9 Lakh NF .Total turnover was good 1.08 Lakh cores.
7. NF total OI was at 2.13 cores with 14.3 lakh addition in OI longs were added by retailers,HNI.
8. In Equity cash segment FII bought 362.4cores whereas DII sold 115 cores, FII bought in index stocks like SBI and RIL.
9. As per Options data 5000 CE has highest OI of 65 lakhs addition of 8 lakh and 4500 PE has highest OI of 74 Lakhs addition of 3 Lakh. 74 Lakh addition in just 7 days in series. 4500 looks like a good base as of now.
10. 4700 PE has added another 6 lakhs in OI so total of 38 lakh in 5 days . Today VIX has also declined 6% which means Options premium will be reduced further.
11. 5100 CE has seen an addition of another 5 Lakhs in OI so in total 18 lakh in past 4 trading session Speculative money is entering in 5100 CE .
12. 4300 PE finally saw a liquidation of 8.5 lakh in OI as FII who wrote are exiting out of it Rs 12 to Rs 3 Nice returns in 4 days.
13. Today we saw an addition of 5.1 lakh in 4400 PE with price as now as 4 rs from high of rs 14. So rs 10 premium gone in 1 day.
14. FII SAR level comes at 4813.
15. Should we short the market ? A BIG NO till you see a reversal sign. What could be the reversal sign Close below 4800. As per Options 4800 PE saw an addtion of 24 alkhs in OI . So if writers are strong they will hold 4800 as premium is Rs 61. No Positional Shorts above 4800.
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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elliott waves ki thori ke hisab se 4801 buy ariya target another 100 piont
DEAR SIR HAMKO TECNICAL TO PATA NANHI LAKIN HAMKO 5001 /5080 KA TARGET NIFTY DIK RAHA HEI
Thanks for your update.Immediate short term trend is up and your tgt can be achieved on a close above 4900.
nice analysis bt oi in pe n ce starts to increase frm 1 year to tge date of expiry..
fr eg we can trade in dec 4500pe right nw as well.. and can keep it thus oi oncreasing.. so its nt frm past A8 days..
secondly rupee came down due to incresse in fii flows in the debt mrkt.. no co relation with tge rise in sensex
though nice interpretation…
Thanks a lot!!
I never suggest trading in option on Buy side. Either write options or Trade in futures.
Secondly i agree on FII inflows in money market in tune of 6500 but we cannt ignore 2300 cores on Equity market. Its a conducive effect of both that has corrected the rupess.
Thanks again for your valuable info
also FII s bought stocks worth only 324 crores not 3642 crores as you mentioned in point 8
I think you missed the . symbol it is 326.4
sirji Your 4th point is absolute wrong Rupee does not became stronger because of FII s pumping money in equity market its vice versa
When money flows out ie. dollars are taken out Rupee will increase and vice versa so FII pupming money in market means dollars are coming into hence 51.60 on rupes.
It normal demand and supply concept.