FII F&O Data analysis for 28 Dec trade in Nifty future

By | December 27, 2011 10:04 pm

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 27 Dec.


1. FII bought  13,409  Contracts in NF worth 317.32  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing  by 3783 contracts.

2. As NF  was  up  by 38  points  with Open Interest decrease by  FII . Fall in OI with fall  in price means  profit booking in longs but the total contract bought have increased which i am assuming they added to there longs at lower levels as Nifty bounced from crucial support of 4738.

3. FII Buy price was 4721 and FII Sell price was 4719 which means they did a lot of day trading today as we have predicted they want Nifty to trade in a range so that they can eat the premium of options.

4. Today FALL  was on  volumes 2.96 Lakh NF contract which is the SECOND  lowest traded value for December series, so we had another low volume day with a close with negative bias.

5. Today’s fall will be a welcome for most of bullish traders reason Nifty was overbought on Hourly charts and today fall gave the much awaited correction which will be healthy before we take out all important resistance level of 4813.

Nifty corrected from the crucial resistance of 4801 which is 20 SMA resistance are not taken out in a single rise as market has to move out weak longs out of the system.

6. Once FII covers the whole Options we would move out of this trading zone and will again start the trending moves. Today they have covered 30K in Nifty Options and next 2 days we will see a trending move in excess of 1.5-2% based on Nifty Options OI which side the move will be we will find out as per levels ?

7. NF total OI was at 1.2 cores with 22.4  lakh reduction. Out of 22.4 Lakhs 20 lakhs got rolled over to Jan series and remaining 2 lakhs were mostly longs got liquidated by weak hands.

8. In Equity cash segment FII bought  214 cores  whereas DII sold   95 cores.FII are turning buyers in fag end of Dec series which can be attributed to value buying for year end window dressing.

7. As per Options data  4900 CE has highest OI of 74  lakhs addition of 4.3 lakh and 4600 PE has highest OI of 72 Lakhs covering  of  5 Lakh. So 4600 becomes support and 4900 becomes resistance.So we are seeing range contraction as per Options data as expiry is coming near.

8. 4100-4500 PE saw a liquidation of 7 lakhs in OI which can be attributed to FII covering there shorts as they were net buyers of 108 cores today.

9. 4700 PE added 15 lakhs in OI yesterday today we saw a liquidation on just 1 lakhs so traders who have shorted yesterday are still holding there shorts as premium is still 17 rs and after today fall also premium of 4700 PE declined by just 40 paisa, so this gives me indication 4700 should not be broken in next 2 days.

9. Addition in OI was seen in 4700-4900 CE  in sum of 19 lakhs with 4800 CE adding  5.8 lakhs in OI,as today we failed to hold above 4800.

10. 4810-4830 has been an important resistance for December series.

11. If we look from series to series we have done nothing 24 Nov we closed at 4756 and today ie. Expiry-2 days we closed at 4750 so in short positional traders have nothing to gain, Last 2 days i am waiting for some real action to come.

10. FII SAR level  comes at 4678,down from Monday’s SAR of 4717. Now if one sees the importance of SAR level check the low of NF today it was 4725 just 8 points short of SAR level.

11. Average Traded Price for NF is 4814  for December series which becomes the potential resistance for further upmove to add to it its 50% retracement level from high of 5099 to low of 4631.

13. On Upside above above 4758 Nifty Tgt 4771,4792 and 4813.

14. On dowside below 4716 Nifty Tgt 4693 ,4660 and 4640 (Nifty Spot Level)


Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl


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