Nifty 28 March 2024 Monthly Expiry Analysis

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a BEARISH  approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by shorting 4625  contracts worth 506 crores, resulting in a increase of 28459  contracts in the Net Open Interest. FIIs added 2983 long contracts and 18375 short contracts were added  by them , indicating a preference for adding LONG and adding SHORT positions .With a Net FII Long Short ratio of 0.45 FIIs utilized the market rise to enter Long positions and enter short positions in NIFTY Futures. Clients have covered 29815 long and 22671  Shorts were covered by them.

As Discuused in Last Analysis

Nifty formed an Inside Bar and traded in the range of Mars Ingress of 22 March. The price is ready for a big move as it failed to close above the 50% Octave Point at 22,118, also struggling to cross the 3×4 Gann angle. With multiple Astro events in the last 2 days, we should see a high-intensity move in Nifty before expiry. Bears need to break 21,952, and bulls need to break 22,080 for a trending move to happen.

Nifty continues fail to close above its 3×4 Gann Angle also failed to close above its Octave Point of 22118. In the last 4 trading sessions, Nifty continue to trade in Mars Ingress range. Therefore, Bulls need a close above 22200 for a trending move to occur. Tomorrow, we will have the Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly/Annual closing for Nifty. Additionally, tomorrow we have Bayer’s Rule No. 38, ‘Mercury Latitude Heliocentric.’ Some significant tops and bottoms are produced when Mercury in this motion passes the above-mentioned degrees, which will come into effect. Therefore, the first 15 minutes’ High and Low can guide traders.

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 22125 for a move towards 22180/22255. Bears will get active below 22050 for a move towards 21980/21900

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 09:33,11:31,12:30,01:31,02:25 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty April  Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 0.83 lakh cr , witnessing a addition  of 24 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a addition of SHORT positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 27:23 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22225 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :22278 closed below it.

Nifty has closed below its 20/30 SMA and closed  above 50 SMA.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 22000 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.85. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 22100 strike, followed by 22200 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 22000 strike, followed by 21900 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 22000-22200 levels.

According To Todays Data, Retailers Have sold 153 K Call Option Contracts And 133 K Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. Additionally, They sold  880 K Put Option Contracts And 764 K Put Option Contracts were Shorted by them, Indicating A Bullish Bias.

In Contrast, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold 162 K Call Option Contracts And 238 K Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. On The Put Side, FIIs sold 35 K Put Option Contracts And 164  K Put Option Contracts were Shorted by them, Suggesting They Have Turned To Bearish Bias.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) bought 2170 crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 1197 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22467-21836-21205  This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

You’ve told yourself that you need to follow your rules, that you need to trade smaller, or that you should avoid trading during certain market conditions or times of day. Still you make the same mistakes, lose money, and build frustration., your attempts at change fail because they lack emotional force.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22251. Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 22172, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Expiry Range

Upper End of Expiry : 22270

Lower End of Expiry : 21975

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 22150 Tgt 22175, 22208  and 22255 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 22108 Tgt 22070, 22035  and 22000 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.